News from Space: Space Launch Systems Good to Go!

SLS_goNASA’s Space Launch System, the US’s first exploration-class spacecraft since the Space Shuttle, is a central component in the agency’s plan to restore its ability to independently launch missions into space. An after a thorough review of cost and engineering issues, NASA managers formally approved the mammoth rocket past the whiteboard formulation stage and moved it into full-scale development.

As the world’s most powerful rocket ever built and is intended to take astronauts farther beyond Earth into deep space than ever before possible. This includes the first-ever manned mission to Mars, the Asteroid Belt, and perhaps other planets and moons throughout the Solar System as well. The first SLS mission should lift off no later than 2018, sending the Orion capsule around the Moon, with asteroid and Mars-bound missions following after 2030 or 2032.

Space_Shuttle_Atlantis_launchNASA began the SLS’s design process back in 2011. Back then, the stated goal was to try and re-use as many Space Shuttle components and get back into deep space as quickly and as cost effectively as possible. But now that the formulation stage has been completed, and focus has shifted to actually developing and fabricating the launch system’s millions of constituent components, what kind of missions the SLS will be capable of has become much clearer.

At a press briefing that took place at their Operations Mission Directorate in Washington, Aug. 27th, NASA officials shared  details about the maiden test launch. Known as EM-1, the launch is targeted for November 2018 and will involve the SLS  carrying an uncrewed Orion spacecraft on a journey lasting roughly three weeks that will take it beyond the Moon to a distant retrograde orbit.

Orion_with_ATV_SMPreviously NASA had been targeting Dec. 2017 for the inaugural launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. But the new Nov. 2018 target date has resulted from the rigorous assessment of the technical, cost and scheduling issues. The decision to move forward with the SLS comes after a wide ranging review of the technical risks, costs, schedules and timing known as Key Decision Point C (KDP-C).

As Associate Administrator Robert Lightfoot, who oversaw the review process, said at the briefing:

After rigorous review, we’re committing today to a funding level and readiness date that will keep us on track to sending humans to Mars in the 2030s – and we’re going to stand behind that commitment. Our nation is embarked on an ambitious space exploration program. We are making excellent progress on SLS designed for missions beyond low Earth orbit. We owe it to the American taxpayers to get it right.

spaceX-falcon9The SLS involved in the test flight will be configured to its 70-metric-ton (77-ton) version. By comparison, the Saturn V — which took NASA astronauts to the Moon — had a max Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) payload capacity of 118 metric tons, but it has long since been retired. SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, which is a much smaller and cheaper rocket than the SLS, will be able to put 55 metric tons into LEO.

With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, there aren’t really any heavy lift launchers in operation. Ariane 5, produced by commercial spacecraft manufacturer Arianespace, can only do 21 metric tons to LEO, while the Delta IV (United Launch Alliance) can do 29 metric tons to LEO. In short, NASA’s Space Launch System should be by far the most powerful operational rocket when it arrives in 2017-2018.

CST_Main_Header2-process-sc938x350-t1386173951SpaceX could decide to scale-up the Falcon Heavy, but the rocket’s main purpose is to compete with United Launch Alliance and Arianespace, which currently own the incredibly lucrative heavy lift market. A payload capacity of 55 tons is more than enough for that purpose. A capacity of 150 tons is only for rockets that are intended to aim at targets that are much farther than geostationary orbit — such as the Moon, Mars or Europa.

The SLS’s primary payload will be the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), though it will undoubtedly be used to send other large spacecraft into deep space. The Orion capsule is what NASA will use to land astronauts on the Moon, captured asteroids, Mars, and any other manned missions throughout the Solar System. The first manned Orion launch, to a captured asteroid in lunar orbit, is scheduled to occur in 2021.

mars_roverCombined with SpaceX’s crewed Dragon spacecraft, Boeing’s CST-100, and a slew of crowd-funded projects to place boots on Mars and Europa in the next few decades, things are looking up for human space exploration!


News From Space: Asteroid Misses Earth (Again!)

2000EM26_1Yesterday, an asteroid estimated to be the size of three football fields passed Earth by. Traveling at 43,000 kilometers per hour and passing at a distance of 8.8 lunar distances of Earth, the asteroid showed up just one year after a similar asteroid exploded over Russia and injured 1,200 people. The only problem was, the good people of Earth missed the show!

Slooh, an online “community observatory” that streams images from ground-based telescopes online during celestial events, was supposed to broadcast the approach of the asteroid as it raced past the planet, starting at 9 p.m. ET (2 a.m. MT).  Unfortunately, Slooh’s flagship observatory on Mount Teide in Spain’s Canary Islands was iced over and unable to catch the asteroid – named 2000 EM26 – as it passed us by.

2000EM26_2014_logoShortly thereafter, Slooh’s robotic telescope tried to snap pictures attempted to snap pictures of the asteroid but failed to capture an image at the predicted position. And now, the asteroid has gone missing in the deep sea of space, giving rise to the nickname “Moby Dick”. This means that either the asteroid’s predicted path was in error, or the object was much fainter than expected.

Paul Cox, Slooh’s technical and research director, said that the asteroid should be somewhere in the visible star field. And rather than accept failure at retracing its path, he and the other folks at Slooh are calling upon amateur astronomers to conduct a photographic search for it in the next few nights. Finding it is not just a matter of honor, but of determining how much the space rock has shifted over time.

2000EM26_2Since the asteroid was last observed 14 years ago for only 9 days, it isn’t too surprising that uncertainties in its position could add up over time, shifting its position and path to a different part of the sky by now. As Cox pointed out:

Discovering these Near Earth Objects isn’t enough. As we’ve seen with 2000 EM26, all the effort that went into its discovery is worthless unless follow­up observations are made to accurately determine their orbits for the future.  And that’s exactly what Slooh members are doing, using the robotic telescopes at our world­-class observatory site to accurately measure the precise positions of these asteroids and comets.

Naturally, there were some who worried that this elusive rock might threaten Earth, given its proximity to our own orbit and the fact that it’s path may have changed. But there is no reason to fear, as these changes are not likely to bring it into our path and it won’t be returning anytime soon. And before it does, we ought to have eyes on it again and be able to accurately chart its course.

2000EM26And above all, similar sized asteroids, including ones passing even closer to Earth, zip by every month. 2000 EM26 received a lot of coverage yesterday in part because it arrived close to the anniversary of the Chelyabinsk meteorite fall over Russia. And though it remains hidden for now, eyes are on the sky to find the asteroid again and refine its orbit.

Hopefully the beast won’t get away next time!



New Space: “Sail Rover” to Explore Mercury

zephyr-580x435In addition to their ongoing plans to explore Mars for signs of life, the Jovian moon of Europa, and tow an asteroid closer to Earth, NASA also has plans to explore the surface of Venus. For decades, scientists have been yearning to get a closer look at this world’s pockmarked surface, but the volcanic activity, clouds of sulfuric acid and extreme heat are not exactly favorable to robotic rovers.

But according to NASA’s Innovative Advanced Concepts program, a windsailing rover could be just the means through which the hellish surface environment could be surveyed. This rover, nicknamed Zephyr, would use the high speeds and hot temperatures of Venus to its advantage, deploying a sail after entering the atmosphere and sailing to the ground.

mercury_surfaceThe rover would not be able to move around the surface, but would have electronics inside that are able to withstand the temperatures of 450 degrees Celsius (840 degrees Fahrenheit). Whenever the science team wanted to move some distance, however, they would deploy another sail that could use the wind to transport it across the surface. But mainly, the rover would remain on the ground conducting surface analysis.

Geoffrey Landis, who is with NASA’s Glenn Research Center and a part of the project to develop Zephyr, has long been an advocate of exploring Venus. This has included using solar powered airplane to explore the atmosphere, and colonizing the planet with floating cities. On the subject of Zephyr, he stated that:

A sail rover would be extraordinary for Venus. The sail has only two moving parts-just to set the sail and set the steering position-and that doesn’t require a lot of power. There’s no power required to actually drive. The fundamental elements of a rover for Venus are not beyond the bounds of physics. We could survive the furnace of Venus if we can come up with an innovative concept for a rover that can move on extremely low power levels.

venus_terraformedIn addition to providing volumes of information on the planet’s, exploring the surface of Venus could yield some interesting clues as to how it came to look like something out of Dante’s Inferno. It has been suggested that at one time, Venus may have boasted an atmosphere and surface water similar to Earth’s, but was transformed into a toxic nightmare thanks to a runaway Greenhouse Effect.

Studying how this came to happen would go a long way to helping scientists understand Climate Change here on Earth, and as well as give them the chance to test out possible solutions. And of course, any working solutions might go a long way towards terraforming Venus itself, which is something many scientists are currently advocating since it might be cheaper and less time consuming than transforming Mars.

Then again, if the resources and budget are there, there’s no reason why we can’t try to retool both for human settlement. After all, we might not have much a choice in the coming centuries. Human beings aren’t exactly known for their slow population growth or conservation skills!


News from Space: The Orion MPCV gets a Manned Mission

Orion_arraysIt’s known as the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and it represents NASA’s plans for a next-generation exploration craft. This plan calls for the Orion to be launched aboard the next-generation Space Launch System, a larger, souped-up version of the Saturn V’s that took the Apollo teams into space and men like Neil Armstrong to the Moon.

The first flight, called Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1), will be targeted to send an unpiloted Orion spacecraft to a point more than 70,000 km (40,000 miles) beyond the Moon. This mission will serve as a forerunner to NASA’s new Asteroid Redirect Initiative – a mission to capture an asteroid and tow it closer to Earth – which was recently approved by the Obama Administration.

orion_arrays1But in a recent decision to upgrade the future prospects of the Orion, the EM-1 flight will now serve as an elaborate harbinger to NASA’s likewise enhanced EM-2 mission. This flight would involve sending a crew of astronauts for up close investigation of the small Near Earth Asteroid that would be relocated to the Moon’s vicinity. Until recently, NASA’s plan had been to launch the first crewed Orion atop the 2nd SLS rocket to a high orbit around the moon on the EM-2 mission.

However, the enhanced EM-1 flight would involve launching an unmanned Orion, fully integrated with the SLS, to an orbit near the moon where an asteroid could be moved to as early as 2021. This upgrade would also allow for an exceptionally more vigorous test of all the flight systems for both the Orion and SLS before risking a flight with humans aboard.

orion_arrays2It would also be much more technically challenging, as a slew of additional thruster firings would be conducted to test the engines ability to change orbital parameters, and the Orion would also be outfitted with sensors to collect a wide variety of measurements to evaluate its operation in the harsh space environment. And lastly, the mission’s duration would also be extended from the original 10 to a full 25 days.

Brandi Dean, NASA Johnson Space Center spokeswoman, explained the mission package in a recent interview with Universe Today:

The EM-1 mission with include approximately nine days outbound, three to six days in deep retrograde orbit and nine days back. EM-1 will have a compliment of both operational flight instrumentation and development flight instrumentation. This instrumentation suite gives us the ability to measure many attributes of system functionality and performance, including thermal, stress, displacement, acceleration, pressure and radiation.

The EM-1 flight has many years of planning and development ahead and further revisions prior to the 2017 liftoff are likely. “Final flight test objectives and the exact set of instrumentation required to meet those objectives is currently under development,” explained Dean.

orion_spacecenterThe SLS launcher will be the most powerful and capable rocket ever built by humans – exceeding the liftoff thrust of even the Saturn V, the very rocket that sent the Apollo astronauts into space and put Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins on the Moon. Since NASA is in a hurry to reprise its role as a leader in space, both the Orion and the SLS are under active and accelerating development by NASA and its industrial partners.

As already stated by NASA spokespeople, the 1st Orion capsule is slated to blast off on the unpiloted EFT-1 test flight in September 2014 atop a Delta IV Heavy rocket. This mission will be what is known as a “two orbit” test flight that will take the unmanned Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle to an altitude of 5800 km (3,600 miles) above the Earth’s surface.

After the 2021 missions to the Moon, NASA will be looking farther abroad, seeking to mount manned missions to Mars, and maybe beyond…

And in the meantime, enjoy this video of NASA testing out the parachutes on the Orion space vehicle. The event was captured live on Google+ on July 24th from the U.S. Army’s Yuma Proving Ground in Arizona, and the following is the highlight of the event – the Orion being dropped from a plane!:

NASA’s Eyes the Bennu Asteroid

Osiris_spacecraftNot long ago, NASA announced its plan to to visit an asteroid in our Solar System and towing it closer to Earth. And with their funding secure, NASA announced earlier this month that they had taken some key steps towards making this happen.  The first came on Wednesday, May 15th, when the spacecraft that will be performing the mission – the Origins-Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith Explorer, or Osiris-Rex – got the green light for development.

The second came shortly thereafter, when NASA announced where the robot craft would be headed – the asteroid now known as Bennu. Originally known as 1999 RQ36, the rock was renamed as part of a contest involving suggestions from thousands of schoolchildren. It was a nine-year-old named Michael Puzio who suggested the name, claiming that the the Touch-and-Go Sample Mechanism (Tagsam) arm and solar panels on Osiris-Rex resembled the neck and wings of Bennu, better known as the Phoenix.

Asteroid-ToutatisNASA claims that Bennu could hold clues to the origin of the solar system, hence why samples will be brought back to determine their composition. The new spacecraft will rendezvous with Bennu in 2018 and begin collecting measurements and samples of surface material, and then return to Earth by 2023. Ultimately, the mission is part of NASA’s larger aim at capturing an asteroid and towing it back it to Earth so that the entire body can be studied.

Of course, there are larger plans at work here too. NASA’s truly long-term aims also involve improving asteroid defense, which includes capturing asteroids that are on a potential collision course with Earth and towing them off course. And then there’s the plan to put astronauts on an asteroid by the 2020’s, establishing a Moon outpost in the same decade, and on Mars by 2030. In the end, all roads converge on putting boots on soil that is not of Earth!

And be sure to check out the video simulation of the Osiris-Rex in action, courtesy of NASA:


Asteriod Prospecting by 2015

asteroid_beltDeep Space Industries, a private aerospace company, has been making a big splash in the news lately. Alongside SpaceX, they have been pioneering a new age in space exploration, where costs are reduced and private companies are picking up the slack. And in their latest bid to claim a share of space, the company announced plans late in January to begin asteroid prospecting operations by 2015.

For some time, the concept of sending spaceships to mine asteroids and haul ore has been explored as a serious option. Within the asteroid belt that lies between Mars and Jupiter, countless tons of precious metals, carbon, silicates, and basaltic minerals. If humanity could tap a fraction of a fraction of that mineral wealth, it would be able to supply Earth’s manufacturing needs indefinitely, without all the harmful pollutants or run off caused by mining.

asteroid_miningSo to tap this potential goldmine (literally!) known as the Asteroid Belt, DSI plans to launch a fleet of mini spacecraft into solar orbit to identify potential targets near to Earth that would be suitable to mine. Lacking the resources of some of the bigger players in the space rush, DSI’s probes will ride-share on the launch of larger communications satellites and get a discounted delivery to space.

Initially, a group of 25kg (55 pounds) cubesats with the awesome designation “Firefly” will be launched on a journey lasting from two to six months in 2015. Then, in 2016, the 32 kilograms (70 pound) DragonFly spacecraft will begin their two-to-four-year expeditions and return with up to 68 kilograms (150 pounds) of bounty each. Beyond this, DSI has some truly ambitious plans to establish a foundry amongst the asteroids.

asteroid_foundryThat’s another thing about the Belt. Not only is it an incredibly rich source of minerals, its asteroids would make an ideal place for relocating much of Earth’s heavy industry. Automated facilities, anchored to the surface and processing metals and other materials on site would also reduce the burden on Earth’s environment. Not only would there be no air to befoul with emissions, but the processes used would generate no harmful pollutants.

In DSI’s plan, the foundry would use a patent-pending nickel gas process developed by one of DSI’s co-founders, Stephen Covey, known as “sintering”. This is the same process that is being considered by NASA to build a Moon Base in the Shackleton Crater near the Moon’s south pole. Relying on this same technology, automated foundries could turn ore into finished products with little more than microwave radiation and a 3D printer, which could then be shipped back to Earth.

deepspaceindustries-640x353Naturally, DSI will have plenty of competition down the road. The biggest comes from Google-backed Planetary Resources which staked it claim to an asteroid last April. Much like DSI, they hope to be able to mine everything from water to fuel as well as minerals and rare earths. And of course, SpaceX, which has the most impressive track record thus far, is likely to be looking to the Asteroid Belt before long.

And Golden Spike, the company that is promising commercial flight to the Moon by 2020 is sure to not be left behind. And as for Virgin Galactic, well… Richard Branson didn’t get crazy, stinking rich by letting opportunities pass him by. And given the size and scope of the Belt itself, there’s likely to be no shortage of companies trying to stake a claim, and more than enough for everyone.

So get on board ye capitalist prospectors! A new frontier awaits beyond the rim of Mars…


Asteroid Misses Earth, Again!

asteroid_DA14Well it seems that Earth has survived yet another close shave with an asteroid. This time around, the object in question was a celestial body known as DA14, a rock measuring 45 meters (150 feet) in diameter and weighing in at 130,000 metric tons in mass. Discovered last year by astronomers working out of the La Sagra Sky Survey at the Astronomical Observatory of Mallorca, this asteroid performed the closest fly-by of Earth ever observed by astronomers.

Basically, the asteroids passage took it within Earth’s geosynchronous satellite ring, at a paltry distance of 27,000 kilometers (17,000 miles). That may sound like its still pretty far away, but to give you a sense of scale, consider that Earth’s geosynchronous satellite ring, which the asteroid passed within, is located about 35,800 km above the equator. So basically, this asteroid was closer to you than the satellite that feeds your TV set. Scared yet?

asteroid_DA14pathNaturally, NASA was quick to let people know that DA14’s trajectory and orbit about the Sun would bring it no closer to the Earth’s surface than 3.2 Earth radii on February 15, 2013. In a statement released in advance of the asteroid’s passage, they claimed:

“There is very little chance that asteroid 2012 DA14 will impact a satellite or spacecraft. Because the asteroid is approaching from below Earth, it will pass between the outer constellation of satellites located in geosynchronous orbit (22,245 miles/35,800 kilometers) and the large concentration of satellites orbiting much closer to Earth. (The International Space Station, for example, orbits at the close-in altitude of 240 miles/386 kilometers.). There are almost no satellites orbiting at the distance at which the asteroid will pass.”

However, they were sure to warn satellite operators about the passing, providing them with detailed information about the flyby so they could perform whatever corrections they needed to to protect their orbital property. All in all, we should be counting our lucky stars, given the asteroid’s mass and size. Were it to have landed on Earth, it would have been an extinction-level-event the likes of which has not been seen since the age of the dinosaurs.

In related news, NASA was quick to dispel notions that this asteroid was in any way related the recent arrival of the meteor above the Urals in Russia. In a statement issued earlier today, they said the following:

“According to NASA scientists, the trajectory of the Russia meteor was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object. Information is still being collected about the Russia meteor and analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14’s trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north.”

Good news! We’re not witnessing the End of Days just yet. Take that Apocalyptics! Don’t you people get tired of being wrong? (fingers crossed!)

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NASA Considers Catching Asteroids

CometNASA is apparently considering playing a little catch and release with some giant rocks. Basically, they want to capture an asteroid and deposit in orbit around the Moon by the early 2020s. The announcement of this new plan was made earlier this month, and left many wondering if this has anything to do with the Obama administration’s long term plans for establishing an outpost on the dark side of the moon or sending a manned mission to a near-Earth asteroid.

This makes sense, since if NASA were to place an asteroid in orbit around the Moon, a crewed space craft could practice engaging with it without needing to move beyond the range of a rescue mission. What’s more, such a body would come in handy as a potential stopover base for spaceships looking to refuel and resupply before setting off on deeper space missions – particularly to Mars.

NASA_moonWhat’s more, capturing a near Earth asteroid and bringing it in orbit of the Moon is a safer, cheaper way to perform manned landings on object in the asteroid belt. The nearest proposed target is a space rock named 1999 AO10, an asteroid which is roughly a year’s trip away. Traveling to this body would expose astronauts to long-term radiation since they would be beyond Earth’s protective magnetic field, and would also take them beyond the reach of any possible rescue.

Researchers with the Keck Institute for Space Studies in California have confirmed that NASA is mulling over the plan to build a robotic spacecraft for just such a purpose. They also confirmed that the project would take six to ten years and would involve the launching of a slow-moving spacecraft propelled by solar-heated ions on an Atlas V rocket. After locating and studying the target asteroid, the robot would catch it in a bag measuring about 10 by 15 meters and bring it back towards the moon.

Altogether, the mission would take 6 to 10 years, and cost about 2.6 billion. If successful, it may cut costs when it comes time to place a base in orbit at Lagrange Point 2 – on the dark side of the moon – or when missions to Mars start heating up by 2030. Yes, at this point, I’m thinking the people at NASA are thanking their lucky stars (no pun!) that Obama was reelected back in November. Always good to have powerful friends, especially when they can sign multi-billion dollar checks!


Update on Asteroid Apophis: No Apocalypse by 2036

apophisDiscovered back in 2004, the Apophis asteroid garnered lots of attention when initial calculations of its orbit indicated that there was a 2.7 percent chance that it would hit Earth when it did a flyby in 2029. After running additional calculations based on the asteroids data, scientists were able to rule out a 2029 impact, but there was still a remote possibility that it might hit Earth during another flyby in 2036. However, that estimate has also been revised.

Thanks to the European Space Agency’s Herschel Space Observatory, a number of thermal infrared observations were captured of Apophis at different wavelengths. Taken together with optical measurements, Hershel was able to refine earlier estimates of the asteroid’s properties, which included its overall diameter. Initially, it was estimated to be 270 m on a side but now stands at a robust 325 m, an increased which translates into a 75% increase in its volume.

The thermal readings on the asteroid also provided a new estimate of the asteroid’s albedo, which is the a measure of its reflectivity. Knowing the thermal properties of an asteroid indicates how its orbit might be altered due to subtle heating by the Sun. Known as the Yarkovsky effect, the heating and cooling cycle of a small body as it rotates and as its distance from the Sun changes can instigate long-term changes to the asteroid’s orbit.

All of this taken together, has allowed NASA, the ESA and other space authorities to rule out the possibility of an impact by 2036 as well. Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory:

“We have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036. The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036. Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the foreseeable future.”

But the flyby on April 13, 2029 will be one for the record books, says NASA. On that date, Apophis will achieve the closest flyby of an asteroid of its size when it comes to within 31,300 kilometers (19,400 miles) of the Earth’s surface. And in the meantime, an smaller asteroid (40 meters in diameter) named 2012 DA14 will make an ever closer flyby as it passes Earth at a distance of 27,670 km (17,200 miles).

So people can rest, safe in the knowledge that no asteroids are likely to hit us anytime soon. But at the same time, apocalyptics can rest assured that there will be plenty of remote chances to exploit for the sake of their unusual brand of paranoia. As Yeomans said:

“With new telescopes coming online, the upgrade of existing telescopes and the continued refinement of our orbital determination process, there’s never a dull moment working on near-Earth objects.”

Second Asteroid Makes Even Closer Pass to Earth

CometThank you to Raven Lunatick for bringing this to my attention! It seems that while everyone was watching Toutatis the other day, another asteroid slipped past Earth with few noticing. Luckily, researchers had been observing this newly-discovered asteroid, named 2012 XE54, since Dec. 9th and knew that like the much larger Toutatis, this one would pass Earth by without incident.

But whereas Toutatis avoided Earth by a whopping 7 million kilometers, roughly 18 times the orbit of the Moon, XD54 passed within 230,000 km of Earth. That’s within the Moon’s orbit in case you don’t know, which is a far closer shave for those keeping track!

Granted, this asteroid was substantially smaller than Toutatis, measuring in at 36 meters at its widest point compared to Toutatis’ hefty 4.5 km length. However, that does not mean that such a small object does not have considerable destructive power. For the sake of perspective, consider the case of the asteroid that landed in Siberia in 1908. Here, the stellar object in question was similar size to XD54, and flattened some 2000 square km of forest when it exploded above Siberia’s Podkamennaya Tunguska River.

In addition, XD54 shares another characteristic to the much larger Toutatis, in that its orbit is similar to our own. Scientists now predict that it takes the stellar object 2.72 years to complete a single lap of around the sun. This means that, like Toutatis, we can expect to see it again in the not-too-distant future. However, that’s not likely to be for many years and there’s no indication of if and when it will collide with our planet. So as far as the Doomsayers are concerned, humanity just might make it out of 2012 alive!