I did not start this blog with the intention of getting into politics. There are few things more subjective and divisive than where one stands on various issues, political parties, or where they fall in the big spectrum. However, once in awhile something comes along and you just have to take to whatever forum you have available and comment on it.
And so I come here, to my webpage where I usually do reviews, to comment on this groundbreaking story.
Yes, it finally happened. After ten years of obscurity and unconfirmed whereabouts, after years and years of being told “we think he is in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan”, Bin Laden was not just found, but killed. And the big question that seems to be on everyone’s lips is, what happens now? Obviously, 9/11 was a turning point in history.
Whether or not you agreed with the assessment that it “changed everything”, you had to admit that it was what Gibson described as a “nodal point” in our history. It changed many things, for better or for worse, including but not limited to how the world thinks of terrorism, how the US executed its foreign policy, what that policy entailed, and had a huge impact on international relations.
It also put a face on global terrorism, again for better or for worse. And with Bin Laden’s escape from the US-led invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent invasion of Iraq and torture controversies, many people have been left wondering about the course of the whole “war on terror” and whether or not it was even worth pursuing anymore.
And now, ten years, and two inconclusive wars later – not to mention some “enhanced interrogation techniques”, hundreds of thousands dead, and a whole lot of unanswered questions – the man responsible for 9/11 and this detour in our history is finally dead. But the question remains…
Does Bin Laden’s death mean anything for the “war on terror”? Even though the term has been dropped from the US’ foreign policy lexicon, will this affect the position of the US on the world stage or have any impact on the problems of extremism or terrorism?
Second, and perhaps of equal importance, how will future generations look back on this period in our history? Will they see it as an aberratio, as our generation tends to do with Vietnam? Or will they see it as something that began with tragedy and ended with triumph, albeit with some bumps along the way?
Not Really, No
Personally, I think the answer to the first question is a resounding no. While Bin Laden’s death is certainly a symbolic victory, and definitely a victory for Obama (if he exploits it just right), his death really doesn’t change things vis a vis the bigger picture. Why? Because the war on terror ceased being about Osama many years ago, shortly after Afghanistan was invaded in fact.
Which I think helps to answer question two, but one thing at a time! As it stands, the US is still engaged on a number of fronts with its former “war on terror”, and its enemies go far beyond Bin Laden and his small band of people. Whether it’s the resurgent Taliban, Islamic militants in Pakistan, or the possibility of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, the US finds itself committed to a war on several fronts.
And they aren’t going so well! While the Obama administration’s focus on relying on drone strikes and tactical operations is certainly better than having boots on the ground, this strategy isn’t working too well either. Drone strikes are not as surgical as advertised and the civilian death toll is something the current administration is deliberately keeping from the public.
On the plus side, the US has pulled out of Iraq after seven disastrous years of occupation. The long-term effects that it will have on the region are also unclear. But one thing is for sure… after years of insurgency, civil war, and most areas of the country still living in fear and dire poverty, things couldn’t get much worse.
Any hopes the neo-cons have that something good will come out of the Iraqi war, hence saving Bush’s legacy, cannot be taken seriously anymore. There are those who predict it will get even worse, that the sectarian violence is nearing phase two, that the current government can’t possibly control the country, and that some kind of fundamentalist autocracy with strong ties to Iran is inevitable.
Some think there’s nowhere to go but up, but even many of them believe that it was the withdrawal of the US that now makes this possible – i.e. that nothing good could happen so long as the occupation continued, the Iraqis needing to “build democracy” on their own.
Addendum: these hopes were dashed as well, due to the rise of ISIS and the extreme sectarian violence that followed. While it’s clear that ISIS is a long-term consequence of the US invasion of Iraq and the civil war in Syria, there is also plausible speculation that the rather abrupt withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in 2009 was a factor.
So realistically, Osama’s departure from the international scene is really not the decisive factor it could have been roughly a decade ago. At least, not in my humble opinion. And this, as I said earlier, goes a long way towards answering how this whole episode will be viewed by future generations, – provided I’m correct, of course! 😉
Given the fact that the US can’t use this as a pretext to pull out of Afghanistan, stabilize Iraq, restore the US’s tarnished reputation in the Middle East or amongst it allies, mend fences with Russia, end North Korea and Iran’s defiance, or bring back the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis or Afghans, future generations are likely to see this whole campaign as a resounding failure.
So indeed… what now? What can be done to salvage the situation that 9/11, Osama Bin Laden, and the “war on terror” has left us with? What can we do, short of turning back the clock and killing him back in 2002 when the opportunity first presented itself, thus avoiding all the crap that happened between now and then?