By 2014: According to Asimov and Clarke

asimov_clarkeAmongst the sci-fi greats of old, there were few authors, scientists and futurists more influential than Isaac Asimov and Arthur C. Clarke. And as individuals who constantly had one eye to the world of their day, and one eye to the future, they had plenty to say about what the world would look like by the 21st century. And interestingly enough, 2014 just happens to be the year where much of what they predicted was meant to come true.

For example, 50 years ago, Asimov wrote an article for the New York Times that listed his predictions for what the world would be like in 2014. The article was titled “Visit to the World’s Fair of 2014”, and contained many accurate, and some not-so-accurate, guesses as to how people would be living today and what kinds of technology would be available to us.

Here are some of the accurate predictions:

1. “By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use.”
In short, electroluminescent displays are thin, bright panels that are used in retail displays, signs, lighting and flat panel TVs. What’s more, personal devices are incorporating this technology, in the form of OLED and AMOLED displays, which are both paper-thin and flexible, giving rise to handheld devices you can bend and flex without fear of damaging them.

touch-taiwan_amoled2. “Gadgetry will continue to relieve mankind of tedious jobs.”
Oh yes indeed! In the last thirty years, we’ve seen voicemail replace personal assistants, secretaries and message boards. We’ve seen fax machines replace couriers. We’ve seen personal devices and PDAs that are able to handle more and more in the way of tasks, making it unnecessary for people to consult a written sources of perform their own shorthand calculations. It’s a hallmark of our age that personal technology is doing more and more of the legwork, supposedly freeing us to do more with our time.

3. “Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone.”
This was a popular prediction in Asimov’s time, usually taking the form of a videophone or conversations that happened through display panels. And the rise of the social media and telepresence has certainly delivered on that. Services like Skype, Google Hangout, FaceTime and more have made video chatting very common, and a viable alternative to a phone line you need to pay for.

skypeskype4. “The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books.”
Multitasking is one of the hallmarks of modern computers, handheld devices, and tablets, and has been the norm for operating systems for some time. By simply calling up new windows, new tabs, or opening up multiple apps simultaneously and simply switching between them, users are able to start multiple projects, or conduct work and view video, take pictures, play games, and generally behave like a kid with ADHD on crack if they so choose.

5. “Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.”
If you define “robot” as a computer that looks and acts like a human, then this guess is definitely true. While we do not have robot servants or robot friends per se, we do have Roomba’s, robots capable of performing menial tasks, and even ones capable of imitating animal and even human movements and participating in hazardous duty exercises (Google the DARPA Robot Challenge to see what I mean).

Valkyrie_robotAlas, he was off on several other fronts. For example, kitchens do not yet prepare “automeals” – meaning they prepare entire meals for us at the click of a button. What’s more, the vast majority of our education systems is not geared towards the creation and maintenance of robotics. All surfaces have not yet been converted into display screens, though we could if we wanted to. And the world population is actually higher than he predicted (6,500,000,000 was his estimate).

As for what he got wrong, well… our appliances are not powered by radioactive isotopes, and thereby able to be entirely wireless (though wireless recharging is becoming a reality). Only a fraction of students are currently proficient in computer language, contrary to his expectation that all would be. And last, society is not a place of “enforced leisure”, where work is considered a privilege and not a burden. Too bad too!

Arthur-C-ClarkeAnd when it comes to the future, there are few authors whose predictions are more trusted than Arthur C. Clarke. In addition to being a prolific science fiction writer, he wrote nearly three dozen nonfiction books and countless articles about the future of space travel, undersea exploration and daily life in the 21st century.

And in a recently released clip from a 1974 ABC News program filmed in Australia, Clarke is shown talking to a reporter next to a massive bank of computers. With his son in tow, the reporter asks Clarke to talk about what computers will be like when his son is an adult. In response, Clarke offers some eerily prophetic, if not quite spot-on, predictions:

The big difference when he grows up, in fact it won’t even wait until the year 2001, is that he will have, in his own house, not a computer as big as this, but at least a console through which he can talk to his friendly local computer and get all the information he needs for his everyday life, like his bank statements, his theater reservations, all the information you need in the course of living in a complex modern society. This will be in a compact form in his own house.

internetIn short, Clarke predicted not only the rise of the personal computer, but also online banking, shopping and a slew of internet services. Clarke was then asked about the possible danger of becoming a “computer-dependent” society, and while he acknowledged that in the future humanity would rely on computers “in some ways,” computers would also open up the world:

It’ll make it possible for us to live really anywhere we like. Any businessman, any executive, could live almost anywhere on Earth and still do his business through his device like this. And this is a wonderful thing.

Clarke certainly had a point about computers giving us the ability to communicate from almost anywhere on the globe, also known as telecommunication, telecommuting and telepresence. But as to whether or not our dependence on this level of technology is a good or bad thing, the jury is still out on that one. The point is, his predictions proved to be highly accurate, forty years in advance.

computer_chip1Granted, Clarke’s predictions were not summoned out of thin air. Ever since their use in World War II as a means of cracking Germany’s cyphers, miniaturization has been the trend in computing. By the 1970’s, they were still immense and clunky, but punch cards and vacuum tubes had already given way to transistors, ones which were getting smaller all the time.

And in 1969, the first operational packet network to implement a Transmission Control Protocol and Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) was established. Known as a Advanced Research Projects Agency Network (or ARPANET), this U.S. Department of Defense network was set up to connect the DOD’s various research projects at universities and laboratories all across the US, and was the precursor to the modern internet.

In being a man who was so on top of things technologically, Clarke accurately predicted that these two trends would continue into the foreseeable future, giving rise to computers small enough to fit on our desks (rather than taking up an entire room) and networked with other computers all around the world via a TCP/IP network that enabled real-time data sharing and communications.

And in the meantime, be sure to check out the Clarke interview below:


Sources:
huffingtonpost.com, blastr.com

Judgement Day Update: DARPA Robotics Challenge!

darpa-robotics-challenge-conceptFor the past two years, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been holding a series of trials where robots are tasked with navigating disaster areas and performing tasks with tools and materials provided. This is known as the Robotics Challenge, which took place from Dec.20th to 21st and was streamed live from Florida’s Homestead Miami Speedway.

And this year, Google’s Schaft humanoid robot took home the top prize after scoring 27 points out of a total of 32 points. IHMC Robotics, based in Florida, grabbed second place, while Carnegie Mellon University’s Team Tartan Rescue placed third. Eight of the top teams that participated in the challenge may receive as much as $1 million in funding from DARPA, ahead of further trials next year with a $2 million prize.

schaft_robotBuilt by a Japanese start-up – one of Google’s many recent acquisitions – the Schaft is an updated version of the Humanoid Robot Project robot (HRP-2), with hardware and software modifications that include more powerful actuators, a walking/stabilization system, and a capacitor instead of a battery. The robot stands 1.48 m (4.8 ft) tall, weighs in at 95 kg (209 lb), and is generally unappealing to the eye.

However, what it lacks in photogenic quality, it makes up for in performance. Over the course of the trials, the bipedal robot was able to bring stable walking and significant torque power to fore as it opened doors, wielded hoses, and cut away part of a wall. However, team Schaft lost points when a gust of wind blew a door out of the robot’s hand and the robot was unable to exit a vehicle after navigated a driving course successfully.

Check out the video of the Schaft in action:


Initially, over 100 teams applied to compete when the challenged was announced in April of last year. After a series of reviews and virtual challenges, the field was narrowed down to 16 competing in four “tracks. On Track A, Schaft was joined by the RoboSimian, the robot recently built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Another primate-like robot was the Tartan Rescue CHIMP, a red headless robot with rollers on its feet.

At the other end of the spectrum was the Johnson Space Center’s Valkyrie, a biped, anthropomorphic robot that honestly looks like something out of anime or Tony Stark’s closet. This latter aspect is due largely to the fact that it has a glowing chest light, though the builders claim that it’s just a bulge to make room in the torso for linear actuators to move the waist.

Valkyrie_robotOfficially designated “R5” by NASA, Val was designed to be a high-powered rescue robot, capable of traversing uneven terrain, climbing ladders, using tools, and even driving. According to the designers, the Valkyrie was designed to be human in form because:

a human form makes sense because we’re humans, and these robots will be doing the jobs that we don’t want to be doing because they’re too dangerous. To that end, Valkyrie has seven degree of freedom arms with actuated wrists and hands, each with three fingers and a thumb. It has a head that can tilt and swivel, a waist that can rotate, and six degree of freedom legs complete with feet equipped with six-axis force-torque sensors.

Unfortunately, the robot failed in its tasks this year, scoring 0 points and placing amongst the last three competitors. I guess NASA has some bugs to work out before this patently badass design can go toe-to-toe with other disaster robots. Or perhaps the anthropomorphic concept is just not up to the task. Only time and further trials will tell. And of course, there’s a video of Val in action too:


The B and C track teams are often difficult to tell apart because they all used Atlas robots. Meanwhile, the D track teams brought several of their own robots to the fore. These included Chiron, a robot that resembles a a metallic sea louse; Mojovation, a distinctly minimalist robot; South Korea’s Kaist, and China’s Intelligent Pioneer.

DARPA says that the point of the competition is to provide a baseline from which to develop robotics for disaster response. Events such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, which not only damaged the reactors but made it impossible for crews to respond in time, demonstrate that robots have a potential role. DARPA believes that robots that could navigate the ruins and work in radioactive environments would have been of great help.

DARPA Robotics Challenge The problem is that current robots simply aren’t up to task. Specialized robots can’t be built to deal with the unpredictable, full telepresence control is neither practical nor desirable, and most robots tend to be a bit on the delicate side. What’s needed is a robot that can work on its own, use tools and vehicles at hand, deal with the unpredictable, and is durable and agile enough to operate in the ruins of a building.

That’s where DARPA Robotics Challenge comes in. Over the next few years, DARPA will use the results of the competition to draw a baseline that will benefit engineers working on the next generation of robots. For now, the top eight of the teams go on with DARPA funding to compete in the Robotics Finals event late next year, for a US $2 million prize.

DARPACourseIf there’s one thing the current challenge demonstrated, its that anthropomorphic designs are not well-suited to the tasks they were given. And ironic outcome, considering that one of the aims of the challenge is to develop robots capable of performing human tasks, but under conditions considered unsafe for humans. As always, the top prize goes to those who can think outside the box!

And in the meantime, enjoy this video of the Robot Challenge, taken on the second day of the trials.


Sources: gizmag.com, news.cnet.com, wired.com, IO9.com, theroboticchallenge.org

Westjet Christmas Miracle: Real-Time Giving

This was not only inspirational from a purely human standpoint, it was also really impressive in terms of the technology used. Basically, customers talked to a Santa impersonator using a real-time telepresence link, told him what they wanted, and then boarded their flights. Then, while they were flying, the Westjet staff went out and bought them what they asked for, everything from socks to LCD TVs.

When the customers arrived, they received their presents on the luggage conveyor. And of course, the entire thing was caught on video and distributed for promotional purposes. Quite the Christmas miracle, isn’t it? Check it out! And curses to Coach Muller for beating me to it 😉

The Future is Here: The RP-VITA Robo-doc

RP-VITA

Just to put some fears to rest right away, I should inform you that the RP-VITA, aka. the robo-doc, is not actually a robotic doctor. What it is is a revolutionary new telepresence robot that allows doctors to examine and treat patients from a distance. Earlier this year, the design received approval from the FDA, and has since been picked up by seven hospitals across the United States and one in Mexico City.

RP-VITA, which stands for Remote Presence Virtual + Independent Telemedicine Assistant, was developed collaboratively by iRobot and InTouch Health. InTouch Health specializes in telemedicine, the pursuit of bringing telepresence technology to medical centers all around the world. As for iRobot, they are predominantly known for making the Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner, not to mention the Robotic Fabricator – the world’s first robot-assisted 3D printer.

rp-vita1

As seen in the pics above, the 5-foot robot is basically a roving Webcame that projects a remote doctor’s face and voice for interaction with patients, doctors and nurses. It is also iPad-controlled, but can navigate hospital wards autonomously and even find patients on its own, since it has a map that’s integrated with hospital wards. This makes it the first telepresence robot that’s functions promise not to disrupt existing hospital procedures.

rp-vita_portraitAnd since the RP-VITA was designed with telepresence in mind, it has had no trouble merging in with existing programs such as TeleStroke, TeleICU, TelePsych, and TelePediatric. All of these programs specialize in connecting medical specialists to patients even though they are not on sight. But by adding mobility to the equation, the robot offers a good deal of enhancement to these programs by being able to go where its needed and free up patient care space.

In a press release statement, iRobot and InTouch quoted Paul Vespa, director of neurocritical care at the Reagan Center, citing the benefits of this new robot:

During a stroke, the loss of a few minutes can mean the difference between preserving or losing brain function… The new technology enables me to concentrate on caring for my patient without being distracted by the need to set up and manage its technological features.

So for those fearing that this was the beginning of the end, or that robots were being entrusted with life and death decisions effecting human being, rest assured that this is merely an example of enhancing patient care and that human controllers are still (largely) in control of the process. We’re safe for now…

Source: news.cnet.com

 

The Future is Here: The 3D-printed Robotic Hand

robotic_handThe field of robotic has been advancing by leaps and bounds in recent years, especially where robotic limbs and prosthetics are concerned. But until recently, cost has remained an issue. With top of the line bionic limbs – like the BeBionic which costs up to $35,000 = most amputees simply can’t afford them. Little surprise then why there are many efforts to create robotic limbs that are both cheaper and more accessible.

Last month, DARPA announced the creation of a robotic hand that could perform complex tasks, and which was made using cheap electronic components. And then there’s Robohand, the online group that creates 3D-printed robotic hands for children with a free, open-source 3D-printing pattern available on Thingiverse for people who wish to make their own.

robotic_hand2

And now, Christopher Chappell of the U.K. wants to do take things a step further with his “Anthromod”. Using Kickstarter, a crowdfunding website, he has started a campaign for a 3D-printed robotic hand that is a little bit more sophisticated than the Robohand, but would cost around $450. In short, the proposed design offers the ambulatory ability of a bionic limb, but at a cost that is far more affordable.

To break it down, the arm uses a tendon system of elastic bands with the movement being provided by five Hobby Servos, which are in turn built out of off-the-shelf electronics. Wearers will be able to move all four of the units fingers, thumb and wrist, once the sensors have been calibrated, and the software to control the hand and EEG sensors is available online for free. This all adds up to a unit that is not only more affordable, but easy to assemble, repair and maintain.

robotic_hand3On their Kickstarter page, Chappell describes his campaign and their long-term goals:

Our Kickstarter campaign is to develop a humanoid robotic hand and arm that is of far lower cost than any other available. We believe that this will open up robotics to a far wider market of makers and researchers than has ever been possible. This should then trigger an explosion of creativity in the areas of robotics, telepresence and ultimately prosthetics.

Much like the InMoov, a 3D printed android with limited function, the Anthromod represents an age of robotics that are accessible to the public. And with time, its not hard to imagine an entire line of enhancements and robotics, such as household servants and cybernetic components, that could be manufactured in-house, provided you’re willing to shell out the money for a industrial-sized 3D printer!

To check out the Anthromod website, click here. And be sure to check out the video below of their hand in action.

Note: As of this article’s writing, Chappell and his colleagues passed their goal of £10,000 and reached a whopping total of £12,086 (18,808 dollars US). Congratulations folks!


Sources:
news.cnet.com, kickstarter.com

 

Real-life Robocop?

Imagine if you will, a machine that gives disabled police officers a chance to continue working with the force, but from the comfort and safety of an office. Rather than walking the beat and putting themselves in harm’s way, they could telepresence themselves to the streets through a robot body, one which does the job of getting around and locating offenders, while they issue the arrests and infractions. This is the concept that lies behind a new breed of patrol robot that is being developed by Lieutenant Commander Jeremy Robins and Florida International University’s Discovery Lab.

Initially, Robins began this program as a way of bringing some of the thousands of disabled police officers and soldiers in the U.S. back to the workforce. Ultimately, this would call for the creation of a “telebot” that is not only equipped with the latest in wireless technology, but also one that can get around and take some serious punishment. In many ways, this is an elaboration on the concept of Robocop, the hybrid man-machine that stole our hearts back in the 80’s with his signature lines: “You’re move creep!” and “Dead or alive, you are coming with me!” And let’s not forget that sweet gun trick!

But of course, these new robots would be asked to do less adventurous things than the gun-toting cyborg who saved Old Detroit. In addition to working as patrol officers, they would responsible for handling all the regular tasks of police officers. These would include responding to 911 calls, writing traffic tickets, patrolling specific routes, and staying vigilant for law breakers. In addition, they could also be charged with safe guarding government and high-value facilities from terrorists or other criminals, doing both surveillance and acting as an on-site security force.

Early sketches of the robot give some indication of what it would look like. Essentially, it would have to be mobile, which would call for a wheeled chassis. It would have to be ambulatory, which would require arms. And it ought to have some semblance of a person, since it would be expected to carry the officer’s voice and interact with people. In essence, even little children need to be able to approach this robot and ask it if it can help them find their mothers.

An early rendition, shown here, has been appropriately named “Tough Guy”. Like all other design ideas, the end result calls for a robot that has a two-wheeled chassis, a mobile upper body, and a head that carries a two-way audio and video device so that the officer commanding it can both view and interact with the robots and environment and other people.

Already, the Discovery Lab has announced that the end product will be military grade and usable by the army under the 2 million dollar initiative that DARPA’s (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) set up years ago. Robins is also trying to get NASA to sign on with its Robonaut tech – a program to develop a robotic astronaut. So while the end product will be used primarily by police, plans are already in place to expand it to other areas – such as military operations and unmanned space exploration – as well.