And I’m back with another entry in the Ten Day Book Challenge. I’ve been very bad at keeping up with these, but I am determined to share my choices for the top ten most influential books I’ve ever read. So what I lack in punctuality, I hope to make up in sincerity and selection :).
Okay, so as usual, here are the rules of this challenge:
Thank whoever nominated you with big, bold print. If they have a blog, link to the post where you got tagged there.
Explain the rules.
Post the cover of a book that was influential on you or that you love dearly.
Explain why it was so influential to you.
Tag someone else to do the challenge, and let them know they’ve been tagged.
Thanks once again to RAMI UNGAR for the nomination, and you can find him at ramiungarthewriter.com. And here’s my third selection for the challenge, the post-cyberpunk classic The Diamond Age!
This book takes place in the 21st century after the world has been fundamentally changed by the introduction of nanotechnology. If Eric K. Drexler’s book The Engine of Creation was the authoritative treatise on how nanotechnology would change our lives, The Diamond Age was definitely the fictional counterpart. In this novel, Stephenson treated fans to his usual mix of weirdness, genius, historical and social commentary, education and growth.
For me, this book remains immensely influential, not because it introduced me to the concept of nanotechnology, but because it did so in a way that had such depth. Anyone who reads this is sure to feel that this book came along at exactly the right time to offer commentary on a concept that was slowly moving from the realm of science-fiction to science fact. And as this concept becomes more and more realized, I feel that this book will become required reading for people looking to understand the evolution of nanotechnology.
But, as I said, this book went beyond mere technological commentary, and contained some very interesting thoughts on social change, historical patterns, and the role of culture in development. While I didn’t agree with everything he asserted, it was interesting to see Stephenson detail how specific cultures may go about embracing technology differently, and how the pendulum of history can swing back and forth depending on the time and place and what means are available to people.
If nothing else, it got me thinking in a very serious way, like most of his works. And it was also delightfully fun to read and inspired me as a science fiction writer to take more risks and tackle issues I felt were previously inaccessible to me. Again, I highly recommend this book.
Okay, now for my nomination. This time around, I nominate the Tousled Apostle herself and a long-time friend and colleague of mine, Jamie A. Hughes!
Hi again folks! I’m back with some thoughts from my most recent story project – The Jovian Incident. I know, what else is new, right? Writing can be a self-indulgent process. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned, its that sharing helps when it comes to developing a story. It helps you articulate your thinking and ideas, especially if respected peers tell you what they think (hint, hint!)
As I also learned a long time ago, any science fiction piece that deals with the distant future has to take into account how human beings in the future go about organizing themselves. In this future world, what are the political blocs, the alliances, the rivalries – the ways in which people are united and divided? Well, I gave that a lot of thought before sitting down to pen the book (which is into chapter 11 now). And this is the basic breakdown I came up with.
Extro Factions: For starters, people in the future I am envisioning are tentatively divided into those that live in the inner and outer Solar Systems. But that geographic divide is merely representative of a much bigger issue that divides humanity. Whereas the people living on Earth, Mars and Venus largely fall into the category of “Extro” (i.e. Extropian, people who embrace the transhuman ethic) people in the outer Solar System live simpler, less augmented and enhanced lives (“Retro”).
But within this crude division between people who believe in going beyond their biological limitations and those who believe in respecting them, there are plenty of different social, political and ideological groups to be found. Here’s a rundown on them, starting with the Extro factions…
The Formists: Founded by Piter Chandrasekhar, one of the first colonists of Mars, the Formists are a faction dedicated to the full-scale terraforming of the Red Planet. The purpose of this, obviously, is to allow for full-scale colonization, which is something that remains impossible at this point in the story. All inhabitants on Mars lived in sealed domes, all transit takes place in pressurized tubes or on flyers, and anyone venturing out onto the surface is forced to wear a pressure suit with life-support systems.
Currently, the Formist faction is run by Emile Chandrasekhar, Piter’s grandson. And for the past few decades, they have been busy procuring resources from the outer Solar System to aid in the terraforming process. This includes supplies of methane, ammonia, ices, and lots and lots of comets.
However, they are also busy trying to ensure that the process will have a minimal impact on the settlements and those living within them. Altering the planet’s atmosphere will definitely have a significant impact on the landscape in the short-term, such as sublimating all the water ice in the Martian soil and in the polar caps. Once that water begins to flow, much of the surface will find itself being swallowed up by newly-created oceans. So naturally, the Formists must proceed slowly, and make sure all settlements on Mars agree to their plans.
While the Formist faction is largely centered on Mars, they have counterparts on Venus as well – known as The Graces (after the children of Aphrodite). Here, the process is significantly different, and involves converting the existing atmosphere rather than increasing its density. But the goal is the same: to one day make Venus a living, breathing world human beings can set foot on.
The Dysonists: Among the Extros, there are also those who believe humanity’s future lies not in the stars or in the terraforming the Solar System’s planets, but in the space that surrounds our Sun. They are known as the Dysonists, a faction that is intent on building a massive swarm of structures in the inner Solar System. For some, this calls for a series of rings which house the inhabitants on their inner surface and provide gravity through endless rotation.
For other, more ambitious Dysonists, the plan involves massive swarms of computronium that will contain a sea of uploaded personalities living in simulated environments. Both the swarms and the powerful bandwidth that connects them will draw energy from the Sun’s rays. These individuals consider themselves to be the more puritan of Dysonists, and believe those who advocate buildings rings structures are more properly known as Nivenists.
The process of converting all the “dumb matter” in the Solar System into smart matter has already begun, but in limited form. Within a few generations, it is believed that the Sun will be surrounded by a “Torus” of uploaded minds that will live on while countless generations come and go. Dysonists and their enclaves can be found on Near-Earth Asteroids, in the Main Asteroid Belt, and with committed supporters living on Venus, Mars, Earth, the Moon, and Ceres.
The Habitationists: Inspired by Gerard K. O’Neill, the inventor of the O’Neill Cylinder, the Habitationists began as an architects dream that quickly expanded to fill all of known space. In the 21st century, Earthers looking to escape the growing population crisis began migrating to space. But rather than looking to live on distant worlds or the Moon, where the environment was harsh and the gravity limited, they decided to set up shop in orbit. Here, supplies could be shipped regularly, thanks to the advent of commercial aerospace, and gravity could be simulated at a full g thanks to rotating toruses.
By the mid 22nd century, Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Habs had become all the rage and the skies became somewhat saturated. The existence of Earth’s space elevator (The Spindle) only made deploying and supplying these Habs easier, and a steady drop in the costs of manufacturing and deploying them only made them more popular. As such, Terran architect Hassan Sarawak, who had designed many of the original habitats in space, began to busy himself designing a new series of Habs that would allow human beings to live in space anywhere in the Solar System.
By the end of the 22nd century, when the story takes place, large cylinders exist in several key places in the Solar System. Most are named in honor of either their founders, those who articulated the concept of space habitats, or those who believed in the dream of colonizing space itself (and not just other planets and moons). These places are thusly named O’Neil’s Reach, Clarkestown, Sawarakand, and New Standford.
The Seedlings: As the name would suggest, the Seedlings are those intrepid Extropians who believe humanity should “seed” the galaxy with humanity, spreading to all solar systems that have confirmed exoplanets and building settlements there. But in a slight twist, they believe that this process should be done using the latest in nanotechnology and space penetrators, not slow interstellar ships ferrying human colonist and terraformers.
To the Seedlings, who can be found throughout the inner Solar System, and on some of its most distant moons, the idea is simple. Load up a tiny projectile-ship with billions of nanobots designed to slowly convert a planet’s climate, then fire it on a trajectory that will take it to an exoplanet many generations from now. Then, prepare a ship with colonists, send it on its merry way into space, and by the time they reach the distant world, it will be fully prepared for their arrival.
At this point in the story, the Seedlings first few missions are still in the planning stages. They’ve got the technology, they’ve got the know-how, and they know where the right candidate planets are located. All they need to do know is test out their machines and make sure the process works, so that they won’t be sending their colonists into a deathtrap.
Sidenote: this idea is actually one I explored in a short story I am trying to get published. If all goes well, I am the short story and this full-length idea can be connected as part of a singular narrative.
Retro Factions: And now we come to the people who live predominantly in the outer Solar System, the folks who found life on Earth and the inner worlds unlivable thanks to its breakneck pace and the fact that life was becoming far too complicated. These are the people whom – for religious, personal, or moral reasons – chose to live on the frontier worlds in order to ensure something other than humanity’s survival as a species. For these people, it was about preserving humanity’s soul.
Organics: In the mid to late 21st century, as biotech and cybernetics became an increasingly prevalent part of society, a divide began to emerge between people who enhanced their biology and neurology and those who did not. While the former were in the minority for the first few decades, by the latter half of the 21st century, more and more people began to become, in essence, “transhuman” – (i.e. more than human).
At the same time, fears and concerns began to emerge that humanity was forsaking the very things that made it human. With lives becoming artificially prolonged, human parts being swapped for bionic or biomimetic implants, and brains becoming enhanced with neural implants and “looms”, humanity seemed on course to becoming post-human (i.e. not human at all).
And while the concerns were justified, few who could afford such enhancements seemed to be willing to forsake the convenience and necessity they represented. In a world where they conferred advantage over the unenhanced, choosing not to augment one’s body and mind seemed foolish. But between those who could not afford to, those who were forbidden to, and those who chose not to, eventually a new underclass emerged – known as “Organics”.
Today’s organics, who live predominantly in the outer Solar System or isolated pockets in the inner worlds, are the descendants of these people. They live a simpler life, eschewing most of the current technology in favor for a more holistic existence, depending on various levels of technology to maintain a certain balance.
Fundies: Naturally, human beings in the late 22nd century still have their faiths and creeds. Despite what some said in previous centuries, mankind did not outgrow the need for religion as it began to explore space and colonizing new worlds. And when the Singularity took place in the mid 21st century, and life became increasingly complex, enhanced, and technologically-dominated, the world’s religiously-devout began to feel paradoxical. On the one hand, religion seemed to be getting more unpopular and obsolete; but at the same time, more rare and precious.
To be fair, there was a time when it seemed as though the prediction of a religion-less humanity might come true. In the early to mid 21st century, organized religion was in a noticeable state of decline. Religious institutions found it harder and harder to adapt to the times, and the world’s devout appeared to be getting increasingly radicalized. However, in and around all of these observable trends, there were countless people who clung to their faith and their humanity because they feared where the future was taking them.
In the current era, the outer Solar System has become a haven for many sects and religious organizations that felt the Inner Worlds were too intolerant of their beliefs. While there will always be people who embrace one sort of faith or another on all worlds – for instance, billions of Extros identify as Gnosi or Monist – the majority of devout Kristos, Sindhus, Mahavadans, Mahomets, and Judahs now call the worlds of Ganymede, Callisto, Europa, Titan, Rhea, Iapetus, Dione, Tethys, Titania, Oberon, Ariel and Umbriel home.
The vast majority of these people want to live in peace. But for some, the encroachment of the Inner Worlds into the life and economies of their moons is something that must be stopped. They believe, as many do, that sooner or later, the Extro factions will try to overtake these worlds as well, and that they will either be forced to move farther out, colonizing the moons of Neptune and the Kuiper Belt, or find homes in new star systems entirely. As such, some are joining causes that are dedicated to pushing back against this intrusion…
Chauvians (Independents): Many in the past also thought that nationalism, that sense of pride that is as divisive as it is unifying, would also have disappeared by this point in time. And while humanity did begin to celebrate a newfound sense of unity by the late 21st century, the colonizing of new worlds had the effect of creating new identities that were bound to a specific space and place. And given the divisive political climate that exists in the late 22nd century, it was only natural that many people in the Outer Worlds began preaching a form of independent nationalism in the hopes of rallying their people.
Collectively, such people are known as “Chauvians“, a slight bastardization of the word “Jovian” (which applies to inhabitants of any of the outer Solar System’s moons). But to others, they are known simply as Independents, people striving to ensure their worlds remain free of external control. And to those belonging to these factions, their worlds and their people are endangered and something must be done to stop the intrusion of Extros into the outer Solar System. For the most part, their methods are passive, informative, and strictly political. But for others, extra-legal means, even violent means, are seen as necessary.
Examples include the Children of Jove and the Aquilan Front, which are native to the Galilean moons of Jupiter. On the Cronian moons, the Centimanes are the main front agitating for action against the Extros. And on the Uranian moons, the organizations known as The Furies and the Sky Children are the forces to be reckoned with. Whereas the more-moderate of these factions are suspected of being behind numerous protests, riots, and organized strikes, the radicals are believed to be behind the disappearance of several Extro citizens who went missing in the Outer Worlds. In time, it is believed that a confrontation will occur between these groups and the local authorities, with everyone else being caught in the middle.
And those are the relevant players in this story I’m working out. Hope you like them, because a few come into play in the first story and the rest I think could become central to the plots of any future works in the same universe. Let me know what you think! 🙂
Welcome to the world of tomorroooooow! Or more precisely, to many possible scenarios that humanity could face as it steps into the future. Perhaps it’s been all this talk of late about the future of humanity, how space exploration and colonization may be the only way to ensure our survival. Or it could be I’m just recalling what a friend of mine – Chris A. Jackson – wrote with his “Flash in the Pan” piece – a short that consequently inspired me to write the novel Source.
Either way, I’ve been thinking about the likely future scenarios and thought I should include it alongside the Timeline of the Future. After all, once cannot predict the course of the future as much as predict possible outcomes and paths, and trust that the one they believe in the most will come true. So, borrowing from the same format Chris used, here are a few potential fates, listed from worst to best – or least to most advanced.
1. Humanrien: Due to the runaway effects of Climate Change during the 21st/22nd centuries, the Earth is now a desolate shadow of its once-great self. Humanity is non-existent, as are many other species of mammals, avians, reptiles, and insects. And it is predicted that the process will continue into the foreseeable future, until such time as the atmosphere becomes a poisoned, sulfuric vapor and the ground nothing more than windswept ashes and molten metal.
One thing is clear though: the Earth will never recover, and humanity’s failure to seed other planets with life and maintain a sustainable existence on Earth has led to its extinction. The universe shrugs and carries on…
2. Post-Apocalyptic: Whether it is due to nuclear war, a bio-engineered plague, or some kind of “nanocaust”, civilization as we know it has come to an end. All major cities lie in ruin and are populated only marauders and street gangs, the more peaceful-minded people having fled to the countryside long ago. In scattered locations along major rivers, coastlines, or within small pockets of land, tiny communities have formed and eke out an existence from the surrounding countryside.
At this point, it is unclear if humanity will recover or remain at the level of a pre-industrial civilization forever. One thing seems clear, that humanity will not go extinct just yet. With so many pockets spread across the entire planet, no single fate could claim all of them anytime soon. At least, one can hope that it won’t.
3. Dog Days: The world continues to endure recession as resource shortages, high food prices, and diminishing space for real estate continue to plague the global economy. Fuel prices remain high, and opposition to new drilling and oil and natural gas extraction are being blamed. Add to that the crushing burdens of displacement and flooding that is costing governments billions of dollars a year, and you have life as we know it.
The smart money appears to be in offshore real-estate, where Lillypad cities and Arcologies are being built along the coastlines of the world. Already, habitats have been built in Boston, New York, New Orleans, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and the south of France, and more are expected in the coming years. These are the most promising solution of what to do about the constant flooding and damage being caused by rising tides and increased coastal storms.
In these largely self-contained cities, those who can afford space intend to wait out the worst. It is expected that by the mid-point of the 22nd century, virtually all major ocean-front cities will be abandoned and those that sit on major waterways will be protected by huge levies. Farmland will also be virtually non-existent except within the Polar Belts, which means the people living in the most populous regions of the world will either have to migrate or die.
No one knows how the world’s 9 billion will endure in that time, but for the roughly 100 million living at sea, it’s not a going concern.
4. Technological Plateau: Computers have reached a threshold of speed and processing power. Despite the discovery of graphene, the use of optical components, and the development of quantum computing/internet principles, it now seems that machines are as smart as they will ever be. That is to say, they are only slightly more intelligent than humans, and still can’t seem to beat the Turing Test with any consistency.
It seems the long awaited-for explosion in learning and intelligence predicted by Von Neumann, Kurzweil and Vinge seems to have fallen flat. That being said, life is getting better. With all the advances turned towards finding solutions to humanity’s problems, alternative energy, medicine, cybernetics and space exploration are still growing apace; just not as fast or awesomely as people in the previous century had hoped.
Missions to Mars have been mounted, but a colony on that world is still a long ways away. A settlement on the Moon has been built, but mainly to monitor the research and solar energy concerns that exist there. And the problem of global food shortages and CO2 emissions is steadily declining. It seems that the words “sane planning, sensible tomorrow” have come to characterize humanity’s existence. Which is good… not great, but good.
Humanity’s greatest expectations may have yielded some disappointment, but everyone agrees that things could have been a hell of a lot worse!
5. The Green Revolution: The global population has reached 10 billion. But the good news is, its been that way for several decades. Thanks to smart housing, hydroponics and urban farms, hunger and malnutrition have been eliminated. The needs of the Earth’s people are also being met by a combination of wind, solar, tidal, geothermal and fusion power. And though space is not exactly at a premium, there is little want for housing anymore.
Additive manufacturing, biomanufacturing and nanomanufacturing have all led to an explosion in how public spaces are built and administered. Though it has led to the elimination of human construction and skilled labor, the process is much safer, cleaner, efficient, and has ensured that anything built within the past half-century is harmonious with the surrounding environment.
This explosion is geological engineering is due in part to settlement efforts on Mars and the terraforming of Venus. Building a liveable environment on one and transforming the acidic atmosphere on the other have helped humanity to test key technologies and processes used to end global warming and rehabilitate the seas and soil here on Earth. Over 100,000 people now call themselves “Martian”, and an additional 10,000 Venusians are expected before long.
Colonization is an especially attractive prospect for those who feel that Earth is too crowded, too conservative, and lacking in personal space…
6. Intrepid Explorers: Humanity has successfully colonized Mars, Venus, and is busy settling the many moons of the outer Solar System. Current population statistics indicate that over 50 billion people now live on a dozen worlds, and many are feeling the itch for adventure. With deep-space exploration now practical, thanks to the development of the Alcubierre Warp Drive, many missions have been mounted to explore and colonizing neighboring star systems.
These include Earth’s immediate neighbor, Alpha Centauri, but also the viable star systems of Tau Ceti, Kapteyn, Gliese 581, Kepler 62, HD 85512, and many more. With so many Earth-like, potentially habitable planets in the near-universe and now within our reach, nothing seems to stand between us and the dream of an interstellar human race. Mission to find extra-terrestrial intelligence are even being plotted.
This is one prospect humanity both anticipates and fears. While it is clear that no sentient life exists within the local group of star systems, our exploration of the cosmos has just begun. And if our ongoing scientific surveys have proven anything, it is that the conditions for life exist within many star systems and on many worlds. No telling when we might find one that has produced life of comparable complexity to our own, but time will tell.
One can only imagine what they will look like. One can only imagine if they are more or less advanced than us. And most importantly, one can only hope that they will be friendly…
7. Post-Humanity: Cybernetics, biotechnology, and nanotechnology have led to an era of enhancement where virtually every human being has evolved beyond its biological limitations. Advanced medicine, digital sentience and cryonics have prolonged life indefinitely, and when someone is facing death, they can preserve their neural patterns or their brain for all time by simply uploading or placing it into stasis.
Both of these options have made deep-space exploration a reality. Preserved human beings launch themselves towards expoplanets, while the neural uploads of explorers spend decades or even centuries traveling between solar systems aboard tiny spaceships. Space penetrators are fired in all directions to telexplore the most distant worlds, with the information being beamed back to Earth via quantum communications.
It is an age of posts – post-scarcity, post-mortality, and post-humansim. Despite the existence of two billion organics who have minimal enhancement, there appears to be no stopping the trend. And with the breakneck pace at which life moves around them, it is expected that the unenhanced – “organics” as they are often known – will migrate outward to Europa, Ganymede, Titan, Oberon, and the many space habitats that dot the outer Solar System.
Presumably, they will mount their own space exploration in the coming decades to find new homes abroad in interstellar space, where their kind can expect not to be swept aside by the unstoppable tide of progress.
8. Star Children: Earth is no more. The Sun is now a mottled, of its old self. Surrounding by many layers of computronium, our parent star has gone from being the source of all light and energy in our solar system to the energy source that powers the giant Dyson Swarm at the center of our universe. Within this giant Matrioshka Brain, trillions of human minds live out an existence as quantum-state neural patterns, living indefinitely in simulated realities.
Within the outer Solar System and beyond lie billions more, enhanced trans and post-humans who have opted for an “Earthly” existence amongst the planets and stars. However, life seems somewhat limited out in those parts, very rustic compared to the infinite bandwidth and computational power of inner Solar System. And with this strange dichotomy upon them, the human race suspects that it might have solved the Fermi Paradox.
If other sentient life can be expected to have followed a similar pattern of technological development as the human race, then surely they too have evolved to the point where the majority of their species lives in Dyson Swarms around their parent Sun. Venturing beyond holds little appeal, as it means moving away from the source of bandwidth and becoming isolated. Hopefully, enough of them are adventurous enough to meet humanity partway…
Which will come true? Who’s to say? Whether its apocalyptic destruction or runaway technological evolution, cataclysmic change is expected and could very well threaten our existence. Personally, I’m hoping for something in the scenario 5 and/or 6 range. It would be nice to know that both humanity and the world it originated from will survive the coming centuries!
My friend over at Universe Today, Fraser Cain, has been busy of late! In his latest podcast, he asks an all-important question that addresses the worrisome questions arising out of the Fermi Paradox. For those unfamiliar with this, the paradox states that given the age of the universe, the sheer number of stars and planets, and the statistical likelihood of some of the supporting life, how has humanity failed to find any indications of intelligent life elsewhere?
It’s a good question, and raised some frightening possibilities. First off, humanity may be alone in the universe, which is frightening enough prospect given its sheer size. Nothing worse than being on a massive playground and knowing you only have but yourself to play with. A second possibility is that extra-terrestrial life does exist, but has taken great pains to avoid being contacting us. An insulting, if understandable, proposition.
Third, it could be that humanity alone has achieved the level of technical development necessary to send out and receive radio transmissions or construct satellites. That too is troubling, since it would means that despite the age of the universe, it took this long for an technologically advanced species to emerge, and that there are no species out there that we can learn from or look up to.
The fourth, and arguably most frightening possibility, is the Great Filter theory – that all intelligent life is doomed to destroy itself, and we haven’t heard from any others because they are all dead. This concept has been explored by numerous science fiction authors – such as Stephen Baxter (Manifold: Space), Alastair Reynolds (the Revelation Space universe) and Charles Stross (Accelerand0) – all of whom employ a different variation and answer.
As explored by these and other authors, the biggest suggestions are that either civilizations will eventually create weapons or some kind of programmed matter which will destroy – such as nuclear weapons, planet busters, killer robots, or nanotech that goes haywire (aka. “grey goo”). A second possibility is that all species eventually undergo a technological/existential singularity where they shed their bodies and live out their lives in a simulated existence.
A third is that intelligent civilizations fell into a “success trap”, outgrowing their resources and their capacity to support their numbers, or simply ruined their planetary environment before they could get out into the universe. As usual, Fraser gives a great rundown on all of this, explaining the Fermi Paradox is, the statistical likelihood of life existing elsewhere, and what likely scenarios could explain why humanity has yet to find any proof of other civilizations.
Are Intelligent Civilizations Doomed:
And be sure to check out the podcast that deals strictly with the Fermi Paradox, from roughly a year ago:
The scientific and medical research communities have been looking to develop robots that measure in the nanometer range (that’s one-billionth of a meter) for quite some time. Being so small, they would be able to perform difficult tasks, such as targeted drug delivery to specific cells, or the elimination of harmful antigens, pathogens or viruses. However, the development of such machines raises numerous challenges.
For one, making them small enough to fit between cells remains tricky, and these tiny bots would also need a propulsion system that will allow them to navigate their way through the human body. But now, in a paper published in the June 2014 issue of ACS Nano, an Israeli and German team announced the creation of the smallest nanobot yet, a magnet-guided corkscrew which is propelled by a tiny helical propeller.
The team is comprised of researchers from the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, the Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, and the Institute for Physical Chemistry at the University of Stuttgart, Germany. Led by Dr. Peer Fischer at the Max Planck Institute, the research team created the tiny helical nanopropeller from a filament of silica and nickel that measures just 70 nanometers in diameter and 400 in length.
That’s more than 1,000 times smaller than the width of a human hair, or 100 times smaller than a single red blood cell, making the wee machine the tiniest nanopropeller humanity has ever created. Instead of carrying its own motor, the propeller is powered by an externally-applied weak rotating magnetic field which causes the prop to spin, driving it and its attached payload forward.
In order to test it, the scientist placed it in a hyaluronan gel, which is similar in consistency to bodily fluids. Like those fluids, the gel contains a mesh of entangled long polymer protein chains. In previous studies, larger micrometer-sized propellers got caught in these chains, slowing or completely halting their progress. The new nanoprop, however, was able to move relatively quickly by simply passing through the gaps in the mesh.
The study’s co-author, Associate Professor Alex Leshanksy of the Technion Faculty of Chemical Engineering, said that the nanobots:
actually display significantly enhanced propulsion velocities, exceeding the highest speeds measured in glycerin as compared with micro-propellers, which show very low or negligible propulsion.
The applications for this device certainly include targeted drug delivery, where the nanobots would be equipped with insulin, antibiotics, or even chemotherapy drugs which they could then deliver to specific cells in the body to speed up the delivery process and reduce side-effects. Scientists could also attach “active molecules” to the tips of the propellers, or use the propellers to deliver tiny doses of radiation.
The applications seem wide, varied, and exciting, from combating diabetes to fighting cancer and HIV with surgical precision. And developments like these, though they measure in the billionth of meters, they add up to a future where lives are healthier, longer and more prosperous.
It’s been a long while since I did a book review, mainly because I’ve been immersed in my writing. But sooner or later, you have to return to the source, right? As usual, I’ve been reading books that I hope will help me expand my horizons and become a better writer. And with that in mind, I thought I’d finally review a book I finished reading some months ago, one which was I read in the hopes of learning my craft.
It’s called Accelerando, one of Charle’s Stross better known works that earned him the Hugo, Campbell, Clarke, and British Science Fiction Association Awards. The book contains nine short stories, all of which were originally published as novellas and novelettes in Azimov’s Science Fiction. Each one revolves around the Mancx family, looking at three generations that live before, during, and after the technological singularity.
This is the central focus of the story – and Stross’ particular obsession – which he explores in serious depth. The title, which in Italian means “speeding up” and is used as a tempo marking in musical notation, refers to the accelerating rate of technological progress and its impact on humanity. Beginning in the 21st century with the character of Manfred Mancx, a “venture altruist”; moving to his daughter Amber in the mid 21st century; the story culminates with Sirhan al-Khurasani, Amber’s son in the late 21st century and distant future.
In the course of all that, the story looks at such high-minded concepts as nanotechnology, utility fogs, clinical immortality, Matrioshka Brains, extra-terrestrials, FTL, Dyson Spheres and Dyson Swarms, and the Fermi Paradox. It also takes a long-view of emerging technologies and predicts where they will take us down the road.
And to quote Cory Doctorw’s own review of the book, it essentially “Makes hallucinogens obsolete.”
Plot Synopsis: Part I, Slow Takeoff, begins with the short story “Lobsters“, which opens in early-21st century Amsterdam. Here, we see Manfred Macx, a “venture altruist”, going about his business, making business ideas happen for others and promoting development. In the course of things, Manfred receives a call on a courier-delivered phone from entities claiming to be a net-based AI working through a KGB website, seeking his help on how to defect.
Eventually, he discovers the callers are actually uploaded brain-scans of the California spiny lobster looking to escape from humanity’s interference. This leads Macx to team up with his friend, entrepreneur Bob Franklin, who is looking for an AI to crew his nascent spacefaring project—the building of a self-replicating factory complex from cometary material.
In the course of securing them passage aboard Franklin’s ship, a new legal precedent is established that will help define the rights of future AIs and uploaded minds. Meanwhile, Macx’s ex-fiancee Pamela pursues him, seeking to get him to declare his assets as part of her job with the IRS and her disdain for her husband’s post-scarcity economic outlook. Eventually, she catches up to him and forces him to impregnate and marry her in an attempt to control him.
The second story, “Troubador“, takes place three years later where Manfred is in the middle of an acrimonious divorce with Pamela who is once again seeking to force him to declare his assets. Their daughter, Amber, is frozen as a newly fertilized embryo and Pamela wants to raise her in a way that would be consistent with her religious beliefs and not Manfred’s extropian views. Meanwhile, he is working on three new schemes and looking for help to make them a reality.
These include a workable state-centralized planning apparatus that can interface with external market systems, a way to upload the entirety of the 20th century’s out-of-copyright film and music to the net. He meets up with Annette again – a woman working for Arianspace, a French commercial aerospace company – and the two begin a relationship. With her help, his schemes come together perfectly and he is able to thwart his wife and her lawyers. However, their daughter Amber is then defrosted and born, and henceforth is being raised by Pamela.
The third and final story in Part I is “Tourist“, which takes place five years later in Edinburgh. During this story, Manfred is mugged and his memories (stored in a series of Turing-compatible cyberware) are stolen. The criminal tries to use Manfred’s memories and glasses to make some money, but is horrified when he learns all of his plans are being made available free of charge. This forces Annabelle to go out and find the man who did it and cut a deal to get his memories back.
Meanwhile, the Lobsters are thriving in colonies situated at the L5 point, and on a comet in the asteroid belt. Along with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the ESA, they have picked up encrypted signals from outside the solar system. Bob Franklin, now dead, is personality-reconstructed in the Franklin Collective. Manfred, his memories recovered, moves to further expand the rights of non-human intelligences while Aineko begins to study and decode the alien signals.
Part II, Point of Inflection, opens a decade later in the early/mid-21st century and centers on Amber Macx, now a teen-ager, in the outer Solar System. The first story, entitled “Halo“, centers around Amber’s plot (with Annette and Manfred’s help) to break free from her domineering mother by enslaving herself via s Yemeni shell corporation and enlisting aboard a Franklin-Collective owned spacecraft that is mining materials from Amalthea, Jupiter’s fourth moon.
To retain control of her daughter, Pamela petitions an imam named Sadeq to travel to Amalthea to issue an Islamic legal judgment against Amber. Amber manages to thwart this by setting up her own empire on a small, privately owned asteroid, thus making herself sovereign over an actual state. In the meantime, the alien signals have been decoded, and a physical journey to an alien “router” beyond the Solar System is planned.
In the second story “Router“, the uploaded personalities of Amber and 62 of her peers travel to a brown dwarf star named Hyundai +4904/-56 to find the alien router. Traveling aboard the Field Circus, a tiny spacecraft made of computronium and propelled by a Jupiter-based laser and a lightsail, the virtualized crew are contacted by aliens.
Known as “The Wunch”, these sentients occupy virtual bodies based on Lobster patterns that were “borrowed” from Manfred’s original transmissions. After opening up negotiations for technology, Amber and her friends realize the Wunch are just a group of thieving, third-rate “barbarians” who have taken over in the wake of another species transcending thanks to a technological singularity. After thwarting The Wunch, Amber and a few others make the decision to travel deep into the router’s wormhole network.
In the third story, “Nightfall“, the router explorers find themselves trapped by yet more malign aliens in a variety of virtual spaces. In time, they realize the virtual reaities are being hosted by a Matrioshka brain – a megastructure built around a star (similar to a Dyson’s Sphere) composed of computronium. The builders of this brain seem to have disappeared (or been destroyed by their own creations), leaving an anarchy ruled by sentient, viral corporations and scavengers who attempt to use newcomers as currency.
With Aineko’s help, the crew finally escapes by offering passage to a “rogue alien corporation” (a “pyramid scheme crossed with a 419 scam”), represented by a giant virtual slug. This alien personality opens a powered route out, and the crew begins the journey back home after many decades of being away.
Part III, Singularity, things take place back in the Solar System from the point of view of Sirhan – the son of the physical Amber and Sadeq who stayed behind. In “Curator“, the crew of the Field Circus comes home to find that the inner planets of the Solar System have been disassembled to build a Matrioshka brain similar to the one they encountered through the router. They arrive at Saturn, which is where normal humans now reside, and come to a floating habitat in Saturn’s upper atmosphere being run by Sirhan.
The crew upload their virtual states into new bodies, and find that they are all now bankrupt and unable to compete with the new Economics 2.0 model practised by the posthuman intelligences of the inner system. Manfred, Pamela, and Annette are present in various forms and realize Sirhan has summoned them all to this place. Meanwhile, Bailiffs—sentient enforcement constructs—arrive to “repossess” Amber and Aineko, but a scheme is hatched whereby the Slug is introduced to Economics 2.0, which keeps both constructs very busy.
In “Elector“, we see Amber, Annette, Manfred and Gianna (Manfred’s old political colleague) in the increasingly-populated Saturnian floating cities and working on a political campaign to finance a scheme to escape the predations of the “Vile Offspring” – the sentient minds that inhabit the inner Solar System’s Matrioshka brain. With Amber in charge of this “Accelerationista” party, they plan to journey once more to the router network. She loses the election to the stay-at-home “conservationista” faction, but once more the Lobsters step in to help by offering passage to uploads on their large ships if the humans agree to act as explorers and mappers.
In the third and final chapter, “Survivor“, things fast-forward to a few centuries after the singularity. The router has once again been reached by the human ship and humanity now lives in space habitats throughout the Galaxy. While some continue in the ongoing exploration of space, others (copies of various people) live in habitats around Hyundai and other stars, raising children and keeping all past versions of themselves and others archived.
Meanwhile, Manfred and Annette reconcile their differences and realize they were being manipulated all along. Aineko, who was becoming increasingly intelligent throughout the decades, was apparently pushing Manfred to fulfill his schemes to help bring the humanity to the alien node and help humanity escape the fate of other civilizations that were consumed by their own technological progress.
Summary: Needless to say, this book was one big tome of big ideas, and could be mind-bendingly weird and inaccessible at times! I’m thankful I came to it when I did, because no one should attempt to read this until they’ve had sufficient priming by studying all the key concepts involved. For instance, don’t even think about touching this book unless you’re familiar with the notion of the Technological Singularity. Beyond that, be sure to familiarize yourself with things like utility fogs, Dyson Spheres, computronium, nanotechnology, and the basics of space travel.
You know what, let’s just say you shouldn’t be allowed to read this book until you’ve first tackled writers like Ray Kurzweil, William Gibson, Arthur C. Clarke, Alastair Reynolds and Neal Stephenson. Maybe Vernon Vinge too, who I’m currently working on. But assuming you can wrap your mind around the things presented therein, you will feel like you’ve digested something pretty elephantine and which is still pretty cutting edge a decade or more years after it was first published!
But to break it all down, the story is essentially a sort of cautionary tale of the dangers of the ever-increasing pace of change and advancement. At several points in the story, the drive toward extropianism and post-humanity is held up as both an inevitability and a fearful prospect. It’s also presented as a possible explanation for the Fermi Paradox – which states that if sentient life is statistically likely and plentiful in our universe, why has humanity not observed or encountered it?
According to Stross, it is because sentient species – which would all presumably have the capacity for technological advancement – will eventually be consumed by the explosion caused by ever-accelerating progress. This will inevitably lead to a situation where all matter can be converted into computing space, all thought and existence can be uploaded, and species will not want to venture away from their solar system because the bandwidth will be too weak. In a society built on computronium and endless time, instant communication and access will be tantamount to life itself.
All that being said, the inaccessibility can be tricky sometimes and can make the read feel like its a bit of a labor. And the twist at the ending did seem like it was a little contrived and out of left field. It certainly made sense in the context of the story, but to think that a robotic cat that was progressively getting smarter was the reason behind so much of the story’s dynamic – both in terms of the characters and the larger plot – seemed sudden and farfetched.
And in reality, the story was more about the technical aspects and deeper philosophical questions than anything about the characters themselves. As such, anyone who enjoys character-driven stories should probably stay away from it. But for people who enjoy plot-driven tales that are very dense and loaded with cool technical stuff (which describes me pretty well!), this is definitely a must-read.
Now if you will excuse me, I’m off to finish Vernor Vinge’s Rainbow’s End, another dense, sometimes inaccessible read!
There’s just no shortage of breakthroughs in the field of biomedicine these days. Whether it’s 3D bioprinting, bionics, nanotechnology or mind-controlled prosthetics, every passing week seems to bring more in the way of amazing developments. And given the rate of progress, its likely going to be just a few years before mortality itself will be considered a treatable condition.
Consider the most recent breakthrough in 3D printing technology, which comes to us from the J.B Speed School of Engineering at the University of Louisville where researchers used a printed model of a child’s hear to help a team of doctors prepare for open heart surgery. Thanks to these printer-assisted measures, the doctors were able to save the life of a 14-year old child.
Philip Dydysnki, Chief of Radiology at Kosair Children’s Hospital, decided to approach the school when he and his medical team were looking at ways of treating Roland Lian Cung Bawi, a boy born with four heart defects. Using images taken from a CT scan, researchers from the school’s Rapid Prototyping Center were able to create and print a 3D model of Roland’s heart that was 1.5 times its actual size.
Built in three pieces using a flexible filament, the printing reportedly took around 20 hours and cost US$600. Cardiothoracic surgeon Erle Austin III then used the model to devise a surgical plan, ultimately resulting in the repairing of the heart’s defects in just one operation. As Austin said, “I found the model to be a game changer in planning to do surgery on a complex congenital heart defect.”
Roland has since been released from hospital and is said to be in good health. In the future, this type of rapid prototyping could become a mainstay for medical training and practice surgery, giving surgeons the options of testing out their strategies beforehand. And be sure to check out this video of the procedure from the University of Louisville:
And in another story, improvements made in the field of bionics are making a big difference for people suffering from diabetes. For people living with type 1 diabetes, the constant need to extract blood and monitor it can be quite the hassle. Hence why medical researchers are looking for new and non-invasive ways to monitor and adjust sugar levels.
Solutions range from laser blood-monitors to glucose-sensitive nanodust, but the field of bionics also offer solutions. Consider the bionic pancreas that was recently trialled among 30 adults, and has also been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for three transitional outpatient studies over the next 18 months.
The device comprises a sensor inserted under the skin that relays hormone level data to a monitoring device, which in turn sends the information wirelessly to an app on the user’s smartphone. Based on the data, which is provided every five minutes, the app calculates required dosages of insulin or glucagon and communicates the information to two hormone infusion pumps worn by the patient.
The bionic pancreas has been developed by associate professor of biomedical engineering at Boston University Dr. Edward Damiano, and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School Dr. Steven Russell. To date, it has been trialled with diabetic pigs and in three hospital-based feasibility studies amongst adults and adolescents over 24-48 hour periods.
The upcoming studies will allow the device to be tested by participants in real-world scenarios with decreasing amounts of supervision. The first will test the device’s performance for five continuous days involving twenty adults with type 1 diabetes. The results will then be compared to a corresponding five-day period during which time the participants will be at home under their own care and without the device.
A second study will be carried out using 16 boys and 16 girls with type 1 diabetes, testing the device’s performance for six days against a further six days of the participants’ usual care routine. The third and final study will be carried out amongst 50 to 60 further participants with type 1 diabetes who are also medical professionals.
Should the transitional trials be successful, a more developed version of the bionic pancreas, based on results and feedback from the previous trials, will be put through trials in 2015. If all goes well, Prof. Damiano hopes that the bionic pancreas will gain FDA approval and be rolled out by 2017, when his son, who has type 1 diabetes, is expected to start higher education.
With this latest development, we are seeing how smart technology and non-invasive methods are merging to assist people living with chronic health issues. In addition to “smart tattoos” and embedded monitors, it is leading to an age where our health is increasingly in our own hands, and preventative medicine takes precedence over corrective.
If there’s one thing medical science is looking to achieve, it’s ways of dealing with sickness and injuries that are less invasive. And now more than ever, researchers are looking to the natural world for solutions. Whether it is working with the bodies own components to promote healing, or using technologies that imitate living organism, the future of medicine is all about engineered-natural solutions.
Consider the elastic glue developed by associate professor Jeffrey Karp, a Canadian-born medical researcher working at Harvard University. Created for heart surgery, this medical adhesive is designed to replace sutures and staples as the principle means of sealing incisions and defects in heart tissue. But the real kicker? The glue was inspired by sticky natural secretions of slugs.
Officially known as hydrophobic light-activated adhesive (HLAA), the glue was developed in a collaboration between Boston Children’s Hospital, MIT, and Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women’s Hospital. And in addition to being biocompatible and biodegradable (a major plus in surgery), it’s both water-resistant and elastic, allowing it to stretch as a beating heart expands and contracts.
All of this adds up to a medical invention that is far more user-friendly than stitches and staples, does not have to be removed, and will not cause complications. On top of all that, it won’t complicate healing by restricting the heart’s movements, and only becomes active when an ultraviolet light shines on it, so surgeons can more accurately bind the adhesive exactly where needed.
The technology could potentially be applied not just to congenital heart defects, but to a wide variety of organs and other body parts. In an recent interview with CBC Radio’s Quirks & Quarks, Karp explained the advantages of the glue:
Sutures and staples really are not mechanically similar to the tissues in the body, so they can induce stress on the tissue over time. This is a material that’s made from glycerol and sebacic acid, both of which exist in the body and can be readily metabolized. What happens over time is that this material will degrade. Cells will invade into it and on top of it, and ideally the hole will remain closed and the patient won’t require further operations.
In lab tests, biodegradable patches coated with HLAA were applied to holes in the hearts of live pigs. Despite the high pressure of the blood flowing through the organs, the patches maintained a leakproof seal for the 24-hour test period. HLAA is now being commercially developed by Paris-based start-up Gecko Biomedical, which hopes to have it on the market within two to three years.
In another recent development, scientists at the Université de Montréal have created a new DNA clamp capable of detecting the genetic mutations responsible for causing cancers, hemophilia, sickle cell anemia and other diseases. This clamp is not only able to detect mutations more efficiently than existing techniques, it could lead to more advanced screening tests and more efficient DNA-based nanomachines for targeted drug delivery.
To catch diseases at their earliest stages, researchers have begun looking into creating quick screening tests for specific genetic mutations that pose the greatest risk of developing into life-threatening illnesses. When the nucleotide sequence that makes up a DNA strand is altered, it is understood to be a mutation, which specific types of cancers can be caused by.
To detect this type of mutation and others, researchers typically use molecular beacons or probes, which are DNA sequences that become fluorescent on detecting mutations in DNA strands. The team of international researchers that developed the DNA clamp state that their diagnostic nano machine allows them to more accurately differentiate between mutant and non-mutant DNA.
According to the research team, the DNA clamp is designed to recognize complementary DNA target sequences, binds with them, and form a stable triple helix structure, while fluorescing at the same time. Being able to identify single point mutations more easily this way is expected to help doctors identify different types of cancer risks and inform patients about the specific cancers they are likely to develop.
Diagnosing cancer at a genetic level could potentially help arrest the disease, before it even develops properly. Alexis Vallée-Bélisle, a Chemistry Professor at the Université de Montréal, explained the long-term benefits of this breakthrough in a recent interview:
Cancer is a very complex disease that is caused by many factors. However, most of these factors are written in DNA. We only envisage identifying the cancers or potential of cancer. As our understanding of the effect of mutations in various cancer will progress, early diagnosis of many forms of cancer will become more and more possible.
Currently the team has only tested the probe on artificial DNA, and plans are in the works to undertake testing on human samples. But the team also believes that the DNA clamp will have nanotechnological applications, specifically in the development of machines that can do targeted drug-delivery.
For instance, in the future, DNA-based nanomachines could be assembled using many different small DNA sequences to create a 3D structure (like a box). When it encounters a disease marker, the box could then open up and deliver the anti-cancer drug, enabling smart drug delivery. What’s more, this new DNA clamp could prove intrinsic in that assembly process.
Professor Francesco Ricci of the University of Rome, who collaborated on the project, explained the potential in a recent interview:
The clamp switches that we have designed and optimized can recognize a DNA sequence with high precision and high affinity. This means that our clamp switches can be used, for example, as super-glue to assemble these nano machines and create a better and more precise 3D structure that can, for example, open in the presence of a disease marker and release a drug.
Hmm, glues inspired by mollusc secretions, machines made from DNA. Medical technology is looking less like technology and more like biology every day now!
Gauging what life will be like down the road based on the emerging trends of today is something that scientists and speculative minds have been doing since the beginning of time. But given the rapid pace of change in the last century – and the way that it continues to accelerate – predicting future trends has become something of a virtual necessity today.
And the possibilities that are expected for the next generation are both awe-inspiring and cause for concern. On the one hand, several keen innovations are expected to become the norm in terms of transportation, education, health care and consumer trends. On the other, the growing problems of overpopulation, urbanization and Climate Change are likely to force some serious changes.
Having read through quite a bit of material lately that comes from design firms, laboratories, and grant funds that seek to award innovation, I decided to do a post that would take a look at how life is expected to change in the coming decades, based on what we are seeing at work today. So here we go, enjoy the ride, and remember to tip the driver!
Housing: When it comes to designing the cities of the future – where roughly 5 of the worlds 8.25 billion people are going to live – meeting the basic needs of all these folks is complicated by the need to meet them in a sustainable way. Luckily, people all across the world are coming together to propose solutions to this problem, ranging from the small and crafty to the big and audacious.
Consider that buildings of the future could be coated with Smart Paint, a form of pigment that allows people to change the color of their domicile simply by pushing a button. Utilizing nano-particles that rearrange themselves to absorb a different part of the spectrum, the paint is able to reflect whatever wavelength of visible light the user desires, becoming that color and removing the need for new coats of paint.
And consider that apartments and houses in this day could be lighted by units that convert waste light energy from their light bulbs back into functional ambient light. This is the idea behind the Trap Light, a lamp that comes equipped with photoluminescent pigments embedded directly into the glass body. Through this process, 30 minutes of light from an incandescent or LED light bulb provides a few hours of ambient lighting.
And in this kind of city, the use of space and resources has come to be very efficient, mainly because it has had to. In terms of low-rent housing, designs like the Warsaw-inspired Keret House are very popular, a narrow, 14-sqaure meter home that still manages to fit a bathroom, kitchen and bedroom. Being so narrow, city planners are able to squeeze these into the gaps between older buildings, its walls and floors snapping together like Lego.
When it comes to other, larger domiciles (like houses and apartment blocks), construction is likely to become a much more speedy and efficient process – relying on the tools of Computer-Assisted Design (CAD) and digital fabrication (aka. the D-process). Basically, the entire fabrication process is plotted in advance on computer, and then the pieces are tailor made in the factory and snapped together on site.
And lets not forget anti-gravity 3-D printing as a means of urban assembly, as proposed by architecture students from the Joris Laarman Lab in Amsterdam. Using quick-hardening materials and dispensed by robot-driven printers, entire apartment blocks – from electronic components to entire sections of wall – within a few days time. Speedier, safer and more efficient than traditional construction.
Within these buildings, water is recycled and treated, with grey water used to fertilize crops that are grown in house. Using all available spaces – dedicated green spaces, vertical agriculture, and “victory gardens” on balconies – residents are able to grow their own fruits and vegetables. And household 3-D food printers will dispense tailor-made treats, from protein-rich snacks and carb crackers to chocolate and cakes.
And of course, with advances in smart home technology, you can expect that your appliances, thermostat, and display devices will all be predictive and able to anticipate your needs for the day. What’s more, they will all be networked and connected to you via a smartphone or some other such device, which by 2030, is likely to take the form of a smartwatch, smartring or smartbracelet.
Speaking of which…
Smart Devices and Appliances:
When it comes to living in the coming decades, the devices we use to manage our everyday lives and needs will have evolved somewhat. 3-D printing is likely to be an intrinsic part of this, manufacturing everything from food to consumer products. And when it comes to scanning things for the sake of printing them, generating goods on demand, handheld scanners are likely to become all the rage.
That’s where devices like the Mo.Mo. (pictured above) will come into play. According to Futurist Forum, this molecular scanning device scans objects around your house, tells you what materials they’re made from, and whether they can be re-created with a 3-D printer. Personal, household printers are also likely to be the norm, with subscriptions to open-source software sites leading to on-demand household manufacturing.
And, as already mentioned, everything in the home and workplace is likely to be connected to your person through a smart device or embedded chips. Consistent with the concept of the “Internet of Things”, all devices are likely to be able to communicate with you and let you know where they are in real time. To put that in perspective, imagine SIRI speaking to you in the form of your car keys, telling you they are under the couch.
Telepresence, teleconferencing and touchscreens made out of every surface are also likely to have a profound effect. When a person wakes in the morning, the mirror on the wall will have displays telling them the date, time, temperature, and any messages and emails they received during the night. When they are in the shower, the wall could comforting images while music plays. This video from Corning Glass illustrates quite well:
And the current range of tablets, phablets and smartphones are likely to be giving way to flexible, transparent, and ultralight/ultrathin handhelds and wearables that use projection and holographic technology. These will allow a person to type, watch video, or just interface with cyberspace using augmented reality instead of physical objects (like a mouse or keyboard).
And devices which can convert, changing from a smartphone to a tablet to a smartwatch (and maybe even glasses) are another predicted convenience. Relying on nanofabrication technology, Active-Matrix Organic Light-Emitting Diode (AMOLED) technology, and touch-sensitive surfaces, these devices are sure to corner the market of electronics. A good example is Nokia’s Morph concept, shown here:
Energy Needs: In the cities of the near-future, how we generate electricity for all our household appliances, devices and possibly robots will be a going concern. And in keeping with the goal of sustainability, those needs are likely to be met by solar, wind, piezoelectric, geothermal and tidal power wherever possible. By 2030, buildings are even expected to have arrays built in to them to ensure that they can meet their own energy needs independently.
This could look a lot like the Strawscraper (picture above), where thousands of fronds utilize wind currents to generate electricity all day long; or fields filled with Windstalks – where standing carbon-fiber reinforced poles generate electricity by simply swaying with the wind. Wind farms, or wind tunnels and turbines (as envisioned with the Pertamina Energy Tower in Jakarta) could also be used by buildings to do the same job.
In addition, solar panels mounted on the exterior would convert daylight into energy. Assuming these buildings are situated in low-lying areas, superheated subterranean steam could easily be turned into sources of power through underground pipes connected to turbines. And for buildings located near the sea, turbines placed in the harbor could do the same job by capturing the energy of the tides.
Furthermore, piezoelectric devices could be used to turn everyday activity into electricity. Take the Pavegen as an example, a material composed of recycled tires and piezoelectric motors that turns steps into energy. Equipping every hallway, stairwell and touch surface with tensile material and motors, just about everything residents do in a building could become a source of added power.
On top of that, piezoelectric systems could be embedded in roads and on and off ramps, turning automobile traffic into electrical power. In developed countries, this is likely to take the form of advanced materials that create electrical charges when compressed. But for developing nations, a simple system of air cushions and motors could also be effective, as demonstrated by Macías Hernández’ proposed system for Mexico City.
And this would seem like a good segue into the issue of…
Mass Transit: According to UN surveys, roughly 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by the year 2030. Hopefully, the 5.1 billion of us negotiating tight urban spaces by then will have figured out a better way to get around. With so many people packed into dense urban environments, it is simply not practical for all these individuals to rely on smog-emitting automobiles.
For the most part, this can be tackled by the use of mass transit that is particularly fast and efficient, which are the very hallmarks of maglev trains. And while most current designs are already speedy and produce a smaller carbon footprint than armies of cars, next-generation designs like the Hyperloop, The Northeast Maglev (TNEM), and the Nagoya-Tokyo connector are even more impressive.
Dubbed by Elon Musk as the “fifth form” of transportation, these systems would rely on linear electric motors, solar panels, and air cushions to achieve speeds of up to 1290 kilometers per hour (800 mph). In short, they would be able to transport people from Los Angeles and San Francisco in 30 minutes, from New York to Washington D.C. in 60 minutes, and from Nagoya to Tokyo in just 41.
When it comes to highways, future designs are likely to take into account keeping electric cars charged over long distances. Consider the example that comes to us from Sweden, where Volvo is also working to create an electric highway that has embedded electrical lines that keep cars charged over long distances. And on top of that, highways in the future are likely to be “smart”.
For example, the Netherlands-based Studio Roosegaarde has created a concept which relies on motion sensors to detect oncoming vehicles and light the way for them, then shuts down to reduce energy consumption. Lane markings will use glow-in-the-dark paint to minimize the need for lighting, and another temperature-sensitive paint will be used to show ice warnings when the surface is unusually cold.
In addition, the road markings are expected to have longer-term applications, such as being integrated into a robot vehicle’s intelligent monitoring systems. As automated systems and internal computers become more common, smart highways and smart cars are likely to become integrated through their shared systems, taking people from A to B with only minimal assistance from the driver.
And then there’s the concept being used for the future of the Pearl River Delta. This 39,380 square-km (15,200 square-mile) area in southeastern China encompasses a network of rapidly booming cities like Shenzhen, which is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. It’s also one of the most polluted, thanks to the urban growth bringing with it tons of commuters, cars, and vehicle exhaust.
That’s why NODE Architecture & Urbanism – a Chinese design firm – has come up with a city plan for 2030 that plans put transportation below ground, freeing up a whole city above for more housing and public space. Yes, in addition to mass transit – like subways – even major highways will be relegated to the earth, with noxious fumes piped and tunneled elsewhere, leaving the cityscape far less polluted and safer to breathe.
Personal cars will not be gone, however. Which brings us to…
Personal Transit: In the future, the majority of transport is likely to still consist of automobiles, albeit ones that overwhelmingly rely on electric, hydrogen, biofuel or hybrid engines to get around. And keeping these vehicles fueled is going to be one of the more interesting aspects of future cities. For instance, electric cars will need to stay charged when in use in the city, and charge stations are not always available.
That’s where companies like HEVO Power come into play, with its concept of parking chargers that can offer top-ups for electric cars. Having teamed up with NYU Polytechnic Institute to study the possibility of charging parked vehicles on the street, they have devised a manhole c0ver-like device that can be installed in a parking space, hooked up to the city grid, and recharge batteries while commuters do their shopping.
And when looking at individual vehicles, one cannot underestimate the role by played by robot cars. Already, many proposals are being made by companies like Google and Chevrolet for autonomous vehicles that people will be able to summon using their smartphone. In addition, the vehicles will use GPS navigation to automatically make their way to a destination and store locations in its memory for future use.
And then there’s the role that will be played by robotaxis and podcars, a concept which is already being put to work in Masdar Eco City in the United Arab Emirates, San Diego and (coming soon) the UK town of Milton Keynes. In the case of Masdar, the 2GetThere company has built a series of rails that can accommodate 25,000 people a month and are consistent with the city’s plans to create clean, self-sustaining options for transit.
In the case of San Diego, this consists of a network known as the Personal Rapid Transit System – a series of on-call, point to point transit cars which move about on main lines and intermediate stations to find the quickest route to a destination. In Britian, similar plans are being considered for the town of Milton Keynes – a system of 21 on-call podcars similar to what is currently being employed by Heathrow Airport.
But of course, not all future transportation needs will be solved by MagLev trains or armies of podcars. Some existing technologies – such as the bicycle – work pretty well, and just need to be augmented. Lightlane is a perfect example of this, a set of lasers and LED lights that bikers use to project their own personal bike lane from under the seat as they ride.
And let’s not forget the Copenhagen Wheel, a device invented by MIT SENSEable City Lab back in 2009 to electrify the bicycle. Much like other powered-bicycle devices being unveiled today, this electric wheel has a power assist feature to aid the rider, a regenerative braking system that stores energy, and is controlled by sensors in the peddles and comes with smart features can be controlled via a smartphone app.
On top of all that, some research actually suggests that separating modes of transportation – bike lanes, car lanes, bus lanes, etc. – actually does more harm than good to the people using them. In Europe, the traffic concept known as “shared spaces” actually strips paths of traffic markings and lights, and allow walkers and drivers to negotiate their routes on their own.
Shared spaces create more consideration and consciousness for other people using them, which is why the Boston architecture firm Höweler + Yoon designed the “Tripanel” as part of their larger vision for the Boston-Washington corridor (aka. “Boswash”). The Tripanel features a surface that switches among grass, asphalt, and photovoltaic cells, offering a route for pedestrians, bikers, and electric cars.
When it comes to schooling ourselves and our children, the near future is likely to see some serious changes, leading to a virtual reinventing of educational models. For some time now, educators have been predicting how the plurality of perspectives and the rise of a globalized mentality would cause the traditional mode of learning (i.e. centralized schools, transmission learning) to break down.
And according to other speculative thinkers, such as Salim Ismail – the director of Singularity University – education will cease being centralized at all and become an “on-demand service”. In this model, people will simply “pull down a module of learning”, and schooldays and classrooms will be replaced by self-directed lessons and “microlearning moments”.
In this new learning environment, teleconferencing, telepresence, and internet resources are likely to be the main driving force. And while the size and shape of future classrooms is difficult to predict, it is likely that classroom sizes will be smaller by 2030, with just a handful of students using portable devices and display glasses to access information while under the guidance of a teacher.
At the same time, classrooms are likely to be springing up everywhere, in the forms of learning annexes in apartment buildings, or home-school environments. Already, this is an option for distance education, where students and teachers are connected through the internet. With the addition of more sophisticated technology, and VR environments, students will be able to enter “virtual classrooms” and connect across vast distances.
According to Eze Vidra, the head of Google Entrepreneurs Europe: “School kids will learn from short bite-sized modules, and gamification practices will be incorporated in schools to incentivize children to progress on their own.” In short, education will become a self-directed, or (in the case of virtual environments) disembodied experienced that are less standardized, more fun, and more suited to individual needs.
Health: Many experts believe that medicine in the future is likely to shift away from addressing illness to prevention. Using thin, flexible, skin-mounted, embedded, and handheld sensors, people will be able to monitor their health on a daily basis, receiving up-to-date information on their blood pressure, cholesterol, kidney and liver values, and the likelihood that they might contract diseases in their lifetime.
All of these devices are likely to be bundled in one way or another, connected via smartphone or other such device to a person’s home computer or account. Or, as Ariel Schwatz of CoExist anticipates, they could come in the form of a “Bathroom GP”, where a series of devices like a Dr.Loo and Dr. Sink measure everything from kidney function to glucose levels during a routine trip.
Basically, these smart toilets and sinks screen for illnesses by examining your spittle, feces, urine and other bodily fluids, and then send that data to a microchip embedded inside you or on a wristband. This info is analyzed and compared to your DNA patterns and medical records to make sure everything is within the normal range. The chip also measures vital signs, and Dr Mirror displays all the results.
However, hospitals will still exist to deal with serious cases, such as injuries or the sudden onset of illnesses. But we can also expect them to be augmented thanks to the incorporation of new biotech, nanotech and bionic advances. With the development of bionic replacement limbs and mind-controlled prosthetics proceeding apace, every hospital in the future is likely to have a cybernetics or bioenhancement ward.
What’s more, the invention of bioprinting, where 3-D printers are able to turn out replacement organic parts on demand, is also likely to seriously alter the field of medical science. If people are suffering from a failing heart, liver, kidney, or have ruined their knees or other joints, they can simply put in at the bioprinting lab and get some printed replacement parts prepared.
And as a final, encouraging point, diseases like cancer and HIV are likely to be entirely curable. With many vaccines that show the ability to not only block, but even kill, the HIV virus in production, this one-time epidemic is likely to be a thing of the past by 2030. And with a cure for cancer expected in coming years, people in 2030 are likely to view it the same way people view polio or tetanus today. In short, dangerous, but curable!
Buying/Selling: When it comes to living in 2030, several trends are expected to contribute to people’s economic behavior. These include slow economic growth, collaborative consumption, 3-D printing, rising costs, resource scarcity, an aging population, and powerful emerging economies. Some of these trends are specific, but all of them will effect the behavior of future generations, mainly because the world of the future will be even more integrated.
As already noted, 3-D printers and scanners in the home are likely to have a profound effect on the consumer economy, mainly by giving rise to an on-demand manufacturing ethos. This, combined with online shopping, is likely to spell doom for the department store, a process that is already well underway in most developed nations (thanks to one-stop shopping).
However, the emergence of the digital economy is also creating far more in the way of opportunities for micro-entrepreneurship and what is often referred to as the “sharing economy”. This represents a convergence between online reviews, online advertising of goods and services, and direct peer-to-peer buying and selling that circumvents major distributors.
This trend, which is not only reaching back in time to reestablish a bartering economy, but is also creating a “trust metric”, whereby companies, brand names, and even individuals are being measured by to their reputation, which in turn is based on their digital presence and what it says about them. Between a “sharing economy” and a “trust economy”, the economy of the future appears highly decentralized.
Further to this is the development of cryptocurrencies, a digital medium of exchange that relies solely on consumer demand to establish its value – not gold standards, speculators or centralized banks. The first such currency was Bitcoin, which emerged in 2009, but which has since been joined by numerous others like Litecoin, Namecoin, Peercoin, Ripple, Worldcoin, Dogecoin, and Primecoin.
In this especially, the world of 2030 is appearing to be a very fluid place, where wealth depends on spending habits and user faith alone, rather than the power of governments, financial organizations, or centralized bureaucracies. And with this movement into “democratic anarchy” underway, one can expect the social dynamics of nations and the world to change dramatically.
Space Travel!: This last section is of such significance that it simply must end with an exclamation mark. And this is simply because by 2030, many missions and projects that will pave the way towards a renewed space age will be happening… or not. It all comes down to whether or not the funding is made available, public interest remains high, and the design and engineering concepts involved hold true.
However, other things are likely to become the norm, such as space tourism. Thanks to visionaries like World View and Richard Branson (the pioneer of space tourism with Virgin Galactic), trips to the lower atmosphere are likely to become a semi-regular occurrence, paving the way not only for off-world space tourism, but aerospace transit across the globe as well.
Private space exploration will also be in full-swing, thanks to companies like Google’s Space X and people like Elon Musk. This year, Space X is preparing for the first launch of it’s Falcon Heavy rocket, a move which will bring affordable space flight that much closer. And by 2030, affordability will be the hallmarks of private ventures into space, which will likely include asteroid mining and maybe the construction of space habitats.
2030 is also the year that NASA plans to send people to Mars, using the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and a redesigned Saturn V rocket. Once there, the crew will conduct surface studies and build upon the vast legacy of the Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity Rovers to determine what Mars once looked like. This will surely be a media event, the likes of which has not been seen since the Moon Landing.
Speaking of media events, by 2030, NASA may not even be the first space agency or organization to set foot on Mars. Not if Mars One, a nonprofit organization based in the Netherlands, get’s its way and manages to land a group of colonists there by 2023. And they are hardly alone, as Elon Musk has already expressed an interest in establishing a colony of 80,000 people on the Red Planet sometime in the future.
And Inspiration Mars, another non-profit organization hosted by space adventurist Dennis Tito, will have already sent an astronaut couple on a round-trip to Mars and back (again, if all goes as planned). The mission, which is currently slated for 2018 when the planets are in alignment, will therefore be a distant memory, but will serve as an example to all the private space ventures that will have followed.
In addition to Mars, one-way trips are likely to be taking place to other celestial bodies as well. For instance, Objective Europa – a non-profit made up of scientists, conceptual artists, and social-media experts – plans to send a group of volunteers to the Jovian moon of Europa as well. And while 2030 seems a bit soon for a mission, it is likely that (if it hasn’t been scrapped) the program will be in the advanced stages by then.
NASA and other space agencies are also likely to be eying Europa at this time and perhaps even sending ships there to investigate the possibility of life beneath it’s icy surface. Relying on recent revelations about the planet’s ice sheet being thinnest at the equator, a lander or space penetrator is sure to find its way through the ice and determine once and for all if the warm waters below are home to native life forms.
By 2030, NASA’s MAVEN and India’s MOM satellites will also have studied the Martian atmosphere, no doubt providing a much fuller picture of its disappearance. At the same time, NASA will have already towed an asteroid to within the Moon’s orbit to study it, and begun constructing an outpost at the L2 Lagrange Point on the far side of the Moon, should all go as planned.
And last, but certainly not least, by 2030, astronauts from NASA, the ESA, and possibly China are likely to be well on their way towards the creation of a permanent outpost on the Moon. Using a combination of 3-D printing, robots, and sintering technology, future waves of astronauts and settlers will have permanent domes made directly out of regolith with which to conduct research on the Lunar surface.
All of these adventures will help pave the way to a future where space tourism to other planets, habitation on the Moon and Mars, and ventures to the asteroid belt (which will solve humanity’s resource problem indefinitely), will all be the order of the day.
Summary: To break it all down succinctly, the world of 2030 is likely to be rather different than the one we are living in right now. At the same time though, virtually all the developments that characterize it – growing populations, bigger cities, Climate Change, alternative fuels and energy, 3-D printing, cryptocurrencies, and digital devices and communications – are already apparent now.
Still, as these trends and technologies continue to expand and are distributed to more areas of the world – not to mention more people, as they come down in price – humanity is likely to start taking them for granted. The opportunities they open, and the dependency they create, will have a very deterministic effect on how people live and how the next generation will be shaped.
All in all, 2030 will be a very interesting time because it will be here that so many developments – the greatest of which will be Climate Change and the accelerating pace of technological change – will be on the verge of reaching the tipping point. By 2050, both of these factors are likely to come to a head, taking humanity in entirely different directions and vying for control of our future.
Basically, as the natural environment reels from the effects of rising temperatures and an estimated CO2 concentration of 600 ppm in the upper atmosphere, the world will come to be characterized by famine, scarcity, shortages, and high mortality. At the same time, the accelerating pace of technology promises to lead to a new age where abundance, post-scarcity and post-mortality are the norm.
So in the end, 2030 will be a sort of curtain raiser for the halfway point of the 21st century, during which time, humanity’s fate will have become largely evident. I’m sure I’m not alone in hoping things turn out okay, because our children are surely expecting to have children of their own, and I know they would like to leave behind a world the latter could also live in!
It’s no secret that computer scientists and engineers are looking to the human brain as means of achieving the next great leap in computer evolution. Already, machines are being developed that rely on machine blood, can continue working despite being damaged, and recognize images and speech. And soon, a computer chip that is capable of learning from its mistakes will also be available.
The new computing approach, already in use by some large technology companies, is based on the biological nervous system – specifically on how neurons react to stimuli and connect with other neurons to interpret information. It allows computers to absorb new information while carrying out a task, and adjust what they do based on the changing signals.
The first commercial version of the new kind of computer chip is scheduled to be released in 2014, and was the result of a collaborative effort between I.B.M. and Qualcomm, as well as a Stanford research team. This “neuromorphic processor” can not only automate tasks that once required painstaking programming, but can also sidestep and even tolerate errors, potentially making the term “computer crash” obsolete.
In coming years, the approach will make possible a new generation of artificial intelligence systems that will perform some functions that humans do with ease: see, speak, listen, navigate, manipulate and control. That can hold enormous consequences for tasks like facial and speech recognition, navigation and planning, which are still in elementary stages and rely heavily on human programming.
For example, computer vision systems only “recognize” objects that can be identified by the statistics-oriented algorithms programmed into them. An algorithm is like a recipe, a set of step-by-step instructions to perform a calculation. But last year, Google researchers were able to get a machine-learning algorithm, known as a “Google Neural Network”, to perform an identification task (involving cats) without supervision.
And this past June, the company said it had used those neural network techniques to develop a new search service to help customers find specific photos more accurately. And this past November, researchers at Standford University came up with a new algorithm that could give computers the power to more reliably interpret language. It’s known as the Neural Analysis of Sentiment (NaSent).
A similar concept known as Deep Leaning is also looking to endow software with a measure of common sense. Google is using this technique with their voice recognition technology to aid in performing searches. In addition, the social media giant Facebook is looking to use deep learning to help them improve Graph Search, an engine that allows users to search activity on their network.
Until now, the design of computers was dictated by ideas originated by the mathematician John von Neumann about 65 years ago. Microprocessors perform operations at lightning speed, following instructions programmed using long strings of binary code (0s and 1s). The information is stored separately in what is known as memory, either in the processor itself, in adjacent storage chips or in higher capacity magnetic disk drives.
By contrast, the new processors consist of electronic components that can be connected by wires that mimic biological synapses. Because they are based on large groups of neuron-like elements, they are known as neuromorphic processors, a term credited to the California Institute of Technology physicist Carver Mead, who pioneered the concept in the late 1980s.
These processors are not “programmed”, in the conventional sense. Instead, the connections between the circuits are “weighted” according to correlations in data that the processor has already “learned.” Those weights are then altered as data flows in to the chip, causing them to change their values and to “spike.” This, in turn, strengthens some connections and weakens others, reacting much the same way the human brain does.
In the words of Dharmendra Modha, an I.B.M. computer scientist who leads the company’s cognitive computing research effort:
Instead of bringing data to computation as we do today, we can now bring computation to data. Sensors become the computer, and it opens up a new way to use computer chips that can be everywhere.
One great advantage of the new approach is its ability to tolerate glitches, whereas traditional computers are cannot work around the failure of even a single transistor. With the biological designs, the algorithms are ever changing, allowing the system to continuously adapt and work around failures to complete tasks. Another benefit is energy efficiency, another inspiration drawn from the human brain.
The new computers, which are still based on silicon chips, will not replace today’s computers, but augment them; at least for the foreseeable future. Many computer designers see them as coprocessors, meaning they can work in tandem with other circuits that can be embedded in smartphones and the centralized computers that run computing clouds.
However, the new approach is still limited, thanks to the fact that scientists still do not fully understand how the human brain functions. As Kwabena Boahen, a computer scientist who leads Stanford’s Brains in Silicon research program, put it:
We have no clue. I’m an engineer, and I build things. There are these highfalutin theories, but give me one that will let me build something.
Luckily, there are efforts underway that are designed to remedy this, with the specific intention of directing that knowledge towards the creation of better computers and AIs. One such effort comes from the National Science Foundation financed the Center for Brains, Minds and Machines, a new research center based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, with Harvard and Cornell.
Another is the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (aka. Calit2) – a center dedicated to innovation in nanotechnology, life sciences, information technology, and telecommunications. As
Larry Smarr, an astrophysicist and director of Institute, put it:
We’re moving from engineering computing systems to something that has many of the characteristics of biological computing.
And last, but certainly not least, is the Human Brain Project, an international group of 200 scientists from 80 different research institutions and based in Lausanne, Switzerland. Having secured the $1.6 billion they need to fund their efforts, these researchers will spend the next ten years conducting research that cuts across multiple disciplines.
This initiative, which has been compared to the Large Hadron Collider, will attempt to reconstruct the human brain piece-by-piece and gradually bring these cognitive components into an overarching supercomputer. The expected result of this research will be new platforms for “neuromorphic computing” and “neurorobotics,” allowing for the creation of computing and robotic architectures that mimic the functions of the human brain.
When future generations look back on this decade, no doubt they will refer to it as the birth of the neuromophic computing revolution. Or maybe just Neuromorphic Revolution for short, but that sort of depends on the outcome. With so many technological revolutions well underway, it is difficult to imagine how the future will look back and characterize this time.
Perhaps, as Charles Stross suggest, it will simply be known as “the teens”, that time in pre-Singularity history where it was all starting to come together, but was yet to explode and violently change everything we know. I for one am looking forward to being around to witness it all!