Powered by the Sun: Efficiency Records and Future Trends

There have been many new developments in the field of solar technology lately, thanks to new waves of innovation and the ongoing drive to make the technology cheaper and more efficient. At the current rate of growth, solar power is predicted to become cheaper than natural gas by 2025. And with that, so many opportunities for clean energy and clean living will become available.

Though there are many contributing factors to this trend, much of the progress made of late is thanks to the discovery of graphene. This miracle material – which is ultra-thin, strong and light – has the ability to act as a super capacitor, battery, and an amazing superconductor. And its use in the manufacture of solar panels is leading to record breaking efficiency.

Back in 2012, researchers from the University of Florida reported a record efficiency of 8.6 percent for a prototype solar cell consisting of a wafer of silicon coated with a layer of graphene doped with trifluoromethanesulfonyl-amide (TFSA). And now, another team is claiming a new record efficiency of 15.6 percent for a graphene-based solar cell by ditching the silicon all together.

And while 15.6 efficiency might still lag behind certain designs of conventional solar cells (for instance, the Boeing Spectrolabs mass-production design of 2010 achieved upwards of 40 percent), this represents a exponential increase for graphene cells. The reason why it is favored in the production of cells is the fact that compared to silicon, it is far cheaper to produce.

Despite the improvements made in manufacturing and installation, silicon is still expensive to process into cells. This new prototype, created by researchers from the Group of Photovoltaic and Optoelectronic Devices (DFO) – located at Spain’s Universitat Jaume I Castelló and the University of Oxford – uses a combination of titanium oxide and graphene as a charge collector and perovskite to absorb sunlight.

As well as the impressive solar efficiency, the team says the device is manufactured at low temperatures, with the several layers that go into making it being processed at under 150° C (302° F) using a solution-based deposition technique. This not only means lower potential production costs, but also makes it possible for the technology to be used on flexible plastics.

What this means is a drop in costs all around, from production to installation, and the means to adapt the panel design to more surfaces. And considering the rate at which efficiency is being increased, it would not be rash to anticipate a range of graphene-based solar panels hitting the market in the near future – ones that can give conventional cells a run for their money!

However, another major stumbling block with solar power is weather, since it requires clear skies to be effective. For some time, the idea of getting the arrays into space has been proposed as a solution, which may finally be possible thanks to recent drops in the associated costs. In most cases, this consists or orbital arrays, but as noted late last year, there are more ambitious plans as well.

Take the Japanese company Shimizu and it’s proposed “Luna Ring” as an example. As noted earlier this month, Shimizu has proposed creating a solar array some 400 km (250 miles) wide and 11,000 km (6,800 miles) long that would beam solar energy directly to Earth. Being located on the Moon and wrapped around its entirety, this array would be able to take advantage of perennial exposure to sunlight.

Cables underneath the ring would gather power and transfer it to stations that facing Earth, which would then beam the energy our way using microwaves and lasers. Shimizu believes the scheme, which it showed off at a recent exhibition in Japan, would virtually solve our energy crisis, so we never have to think about fossil fuels again.

They predict that the entire array could be built and operational by 2035. Is that too soon to hope for planetary energy independence? And given the progress being made by companies like SpaceX and NASA in bringing the costs of getting into space down, and the way the Moon is factoring into multiple space agencies plans for the coming decades, I would anticipate that such a project is truly feasible, if still speculative.

Combined with increases being made in the fields of wind turbines, tidal harnesses, and other renewable energy sources – i.e. geothermal and piezoelectric – the future of clean energy, clear skies and clean living can’t get here soon enough! And be sure to check out this video of the Luna Ring, courtesy of the Shimizu corporation:

Sources: gizmodo.com, fastcoexist.com

The Future is Here: Wind Drones and Clean Buildings

It’s no secret that wind power is one of main clean forms of energy that is being considered as a viable alternative to coal, oil and gas. But much like solar, tidal and geothermal, the method has some flaws that is preventing it from being adopted in a more widespread fashion. However, as an infinitely renewable source of energy, it likely just a matter of time before technical developments lead to its wholesale use.

The first challenge has to do with size. Currently, wind farms are massive operations, and many designers think they need to continue to get bigger in order to generate the kinds of electricity we currently need. However, a Netherlands-based startup named Ampyx Power is looking in another direction: an airborne wind turbine that they think could capture the same amount of energy as a large operation.

Basically, their design is a small glider plane attached by cable to a generator, which is then deployed into the air and flies in figure eights. As it moves, the glider pulls on the capable, and the generator converts the movement to electricity. Since it isn’t attached to a tower, it can soar nearly 2,000 feet in the air, catching stronger winds that produce about eight times more energy than the lower-altitude breezes that reach a normal wind turbine.

So in addition to being able to produce more power than a typical wind farm, it costs significantly less than its competitor. The average wind farm weighs about 120 metric tons, while the glider system weighs in at a mere 363 kilograms (800 pounds). And in addition to being cheaper than other renewables, the process may even be cheaper than coal.

As Wolbert Allaart, the startup’s managing director, put it:

We’re replacing tons of steel and concrete. It’s a huge materials reduction, and we can produce the same amount of power. That obviously has an effect on cost as well… The whole reason why we’re doing this is because we think we can get the cost of a kilowatt-hour well below the price of coal.

And Ampyx is hardly alone in developing the technology. In fact, their design is similar to California-based Makani Power’s glider. This company was acquired by Google earlier this year, while Ampyx raised the necessary capital via a crowdfunding campaign. And though there are some differences in the design and methods employed, both companies dream of a day when wind will replace coal and other dirty means.

Because the planes are so efficient, places that might not have worked for wind power in the past – like forests, where trees catch and redirect the wind – could be a fit for the system, so the market is wide open. And given his country’s growing interest in wind power, Allaart hopes to introduce it to the domestic market very soon:

In Holland, where we’re based, we now have a 4.3 billion Euro subsidy scheme for offshore wind. People are starting to wonder already, if we have a technology being developed in our own country that could provide offshore wind at more or less competitive price with coal, why on Earth are we still subsidizing this so heavily? How fast this grows will depend on political will.

Another very cool wind-related story comes from Jakarta, where a massive tower is being planned that will be capable of generating all its own power. It’s known as the Pertamina Energy Tower, the proposed headquarters of the Pertamina power company. And while the proposed building will be 99 stories in height, it will also gather all its power from wind, solar, and geothermal energy.

When it comes to its wind operations, the building’s height plays to its advantage. At the top of the building, a funnel captures wind, sucks it inside, and speeds it up to run a series of vertical wind turbines. In this respect, the building operates like a giant, vertical wind tunnel. Solar energy will also be incorporated through panels that will cover the roofs of other buildings on the new campus.

But perhaps the most impressive feat comes in the form of geothermal, a type of energy that’s uniquely suited for Indonesia because it’s a volcanic island chain. Geothermal systems in Indonesia can tap directly into superheated sources of subterranean steam with a single pipe, unlike typical systems that are more complicated and expensive to engineer.

Scott Duncan, the director of Pertamina’s architecture firm – Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP (SOM) – who led the project, describes it this way:

It would essentially provide an unlimited energy source for the tower and campus and could make the tower the world’s first energy-positive supertall building.

In addition to meeting this clean-energy trifecta, the design of the tower is focused on saving energy as much generating it. Sun-shading “leaves” on two sides of the building cut glare and shade the brightest sunlight while still keeping the inside of the offices bright enough to avoid most artificial lighting. Instead of power-sucking air conditioners, the building uses water-based radiant cooling systems to keep the temperatures even.

Along with other strategies, the energy-saving design elements mean that the campus – which will include a mosque, a performing arts and exhibition center, and sports facilities along with the office space – can keep energy use low enough that renewable power may be able to cover its entire energy needs. In short, the building could prove to be a model of energy-independence.

However, the motivation for this project go beyond the altruistic, and involve a good many practical considerations. For starters, Jakarta still has an unreliable power grid, and if the campus generates its own power, work and play won’t get interrupted. The buildings also won’t have to rely on diesel fuel generators if the city’s power goes down.

The technology is expected to be adopted elsewhere, particularly China where wind power is expanding all the time. Indonesia, despite its easy access to geothermal energy, is not the windiest place in the world. Cities that are strategically located along coastlines or in elevated regions would find the wind tunnel feature that much more useful, reducing their dependence on the other two forms of energy.

What’s more, this building is in many respects what one would call an Arcology, and just happens to be the second one being planned for construction in the world today. The other, un-coincidentally enough, is China’s Shanghai Tower, a building that is one-third green space and a transparent second skin that surrounds the city in a protective air envelope that controls its internal temperature.

And with global energy prices increasing, the sources of easily-accessible oil disappearing, and atmospheric CO2 levels steadily rising, we can expect to see more buildings like these ones going up all around the world. We’re also likely to see more creative and innovative forms of power generation popping up in our backyards. Much like peak oil, centralized grids and dependence on unclean energy is disappearing…

And in the meantime, enjoy this video of the Ampyx Power glider in action:

Sources: fastcoexist, (2)

Climate Crisis: Illustrative Video of Impending Disaster

Recently, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its 2012 report, which contained some rather stark observations and conclusions. In addition to reconfirming what the 2007 report said about the anthropogenic effects of CO2 emissions, the report also tackled speculation about the role of Solar Forcing and Cosmic Rays in Global Warming, as well as why warming has been proceeding slower than previously expected.

In the end, the report concluded that certain natural factors, such as the influence of the Sun and Cosmic Rays in “seeding clouds”, were diminishing, and thus have a negative effect on the overall warming situation. In spite of that, global temperatures continue to increase, due to the fact that humanity’s output of greenhouse gases (particularly CO2) has not slowed down one bit in recent years.

The report also goes on to explain detailed scenarios of what we can expect in the coming decades, in extreme and extensive detail. However, for those who have neither the time, patience, or technical knowledge that wade through the report, a helpful video has been provided. Courtesy of Globaia,this four minute video sums up the facts about Climate Change and how it is likely to impact Earth’s many inhabitants, human and otherwise.

Needless to say, the facts are grim. By 2050, if humans remain on their current path, global temperatures will rise more than two degrees Celsius above what it’s been for most of human history. By 2100, it might even climb four degrees. The IPCC report, and this video, confirm what we’ve been hearing everywhere. Arctic sea ice is disappearing, sea levels are rising, storms are getting more destructive, and the full extent of change is not even fully known.

As the organization that put together this data visualization along with other scientists, Globaia says that it created this video as a call to action for policymakers. Felix Pharand-Deschenes, who founded the Canadian nonprofit company and animated the video, claims that:

If we are convinced of the seriousness of the situation, then political actions and technological fixes will result,” says “But we have to change our minds first. This is the reason why we try to translate our terrestrial presence and impacts into images–along with the physical limits of our collective actions.

But of course, there’s still hope. As Pharand-Deschenes went on to say, if we can summon up a “war effort,” and work together the way World War II-era citizens did, we could still manage to the social systems that are largely responsible for the problem. This includes everything from transportation and energy to how we grow our food, enough to stay below a two degree rise.

Of course, this is no small task. But as I love to remind all my readers, research and efforts are happening every day that is making this a reality. Not only is solar, wind and tidal power moving along by leaps and bounds, becoming profitable as well as affordable, we are making great strides in terms of Carbon Capture technology, alternative fuels, and eco-friendly living that are expected to play a huge role in the coming decades.

And though it is often not considered, the progress being made in space flight and exploration also play a role in saving the planet. By looking to make the process of sending ships and satellites into space cheaper, concepts like Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) can become a reality, one which will meet humanity’s immense power demands in a way that is never marred by weather or locality.

Combined with sintering and 3-D printing, asteroid prospecting and mining could become a reality too in a few decades time. Currently, it is estimated that just a few of the larger rocks beyond the orbit of Mars would be enough to meet Earth’s mineral needs indefinitely. By shifting our manufacturing and mining efforts offworld with the help of automated robot spacecraft and factories, we would be generating far less in the way of a carbon footprint here on Earth.

But of course, the question of “will it be enough” is a burning one. Some scientists say that an increase of even two degrees Celsius is more than Earth’s creatures can actually handle. But most agree that we need to act immediately to prepare for the future, and that one of the things standing in the way of action is the fact that the problem seems so abstract. Luckily, informational videos like this one present the problem is clear and concise terms.

The IPCC reports that we only have 125 billion tons of CO2 left to burn before reaching the tipping point, and at current rates, that could happen in just over two decades. Will we have a fully renewable-powered, zero-carbon world by then? Who knows? The point is, if we can get such a task underway by then, things may get worse before they get better, but they will improve in the end. Compared to the prospect of extinction, that seems like a bargain!

In the meantime, check out the video – courtesy of Globaia and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) – and try to enjoy it despite its gloomy predictions. I assure you, it is well worth it!

Source: fastcoexist.com

Climate Crisis: The Ongoing Case of Big Subsidies

One of the most recurring talking points in the Climate Change debate is the issue of renewable energy. Particularly, those who take issue with proposed changes for dealing with the problem continue to cite how solar, wind and tidal power are not viable replacements at this juncture. While this talking point is a convenient way of dismissing needing reforms, it neglects two self-evident realities.

For one, it ignores the immense amount of progress being made in the fields of renewable energy. Whereas inefficiency and high costs remained as stumbling blocks in previous decades, an exponential drop in costs and a rise in efficiency has made solar increasingly attractive for power companies in recent years. Wind and tidal are in similar situations, with countries like Scotland and the United Arab Emirates leading the way in making them profitable.

Second, it ignores the fact that developed nations continue to stymie growth in renewables by the continued way in which they commit billions to subsidizing oil and coal. According to a new report from the Overseas Development Institute, public subsidies for fossil fuels totaled $523 billion in 2011. That’s six times the level of support for the renewable energy industry, despite those technologies being less mature than oil and coal.

Among richer countries, the top 11 heaviest carbon emitters spent $74 billion in subsidies in 2011, with Russia, the United States, Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom leading the way. In the U.S., these included a $1 billion fuel tax exemption for farmers, $1 billion for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and $500 million for fossil fuel R&D.

In so doing, these governments are:

…shooting themselves in both feet [by subsidizing] the very activities that are pushing the world towards dangerous climate change… [and] creating barriers to investment in low-carbon development.

According to the British think-tank, this works out a spending of $112 per adult in these nations. But of course, the richest nations are not the only offenders, which nations like Pakistan, Egypt, and Indonesia spending more than twice as much on fossil fuel subsidies as on health. The ODI says the poorest 20% of households typically receive just 7% of overall handouts.

But the ODI may be underestimating the true size of the subsidies in the U.S., depending on how you look at it. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund calculated subsidies at $502 billion, a figure which includes the true cost of carbon emissions calculated at a price of $25 a ton. By that measure, global subsidies equal $1.9 trillion.

The report also advises that governments should cut handouts to oil and coal as soon as they can and begin looking after the genuinely poor:

Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies would create a win-win scenario. It would eliminate the perverse incentives that drive up carbon emissions, create price signals for investment in a low-carbon transition and reduce pressure on public finances.

A timely and sound recommendation, and one which cuts to the heart of the matter. In order to address the problem of Climate Change, we must not only adopt better methods for meeting our needs, we must acknowledge the truth of the issue. At the same time, we must acknowledge how ending these subsidies, or redistributing them, would alter the current balance of power on the whole issue of energy.

It’s one thing to claim that alternative methods are unviable when the playing field is level, but since it is not, the argument is essentially hypocrisy. By continuing to finance fossil fuels and coal, we are ensuring that clean energy will remain underdeveloped as an alternative, and hence undermining any chance it has at becoming a true alternative.

So the next time someone tells you that solar or other means of renewable energy are at least 50 years away, or that gas and coal are the only economical means of meeting our energy needs, be sure to ask them why we need to spend half a trillion dollars on them annually.

Sources: fastcoexist.com, odi.org.uk

Powered by the Sun: Bringing Solar to the Developing World

All over the world, the goal of bringing development to impoverished communities and nations – but in ways that won’t cause additional harm to the natural environment – remains problematic. As the cases of China and India demonstrate, the world’s fastest growing economies in the 21st century, rapid industrialization may bring economic development, but it comes with a slew of consequences.

These include urban sprawl, more emissions from cars and public transit, and the poisoning of waterways through toxic runoff, chemicals and fertilizers. With seven billion people living in the world today, the majority of which live in major cities and are dependent on fossil fuels, it is important to find ways to encourage growth that won’t make a bad situation worse.

But to paraphrase an old saying, crisis is the mother of creative solutions. And amongst forward-looking economist and developers, a possible solution is take the latest advancements in solar, wind, tidal power and biofuels, and tailor them to meet the needs of local communities. In so doing, it is hoped that the developing world could skip over the industrial phase, reaping the benefits of modernization without all the dirty, unhealthy consequences.

Two such men are Juan Rodriguez – a young man who was studying for his business administration at the Universidad Francisco Marroquin in and cut his teeth working for major multinationals like Pampers, Pepto Bismol and Pantene – and his childhood friend Manuel Aguilar, a Harvard graduate with a degree in astrophysics who had gone on to manage a global hedge fund.

Three years ago, the two agreed that they were looking for something else and began investigating renewable energy. The result was Quetsol, a company that uses solar energy to improve the quality of life of poor communities living off the electrical grid. In Rodriguez’s and Aguilar’s native Guatemala, such poverty is widespread, with close to 20% of the population living without electricity and relying primarily on candles for light.

This picture of poverty is not exactly news. But after spending a year visiting close to 100 such communities, Rodriguez and Aguilar began to get a clear picture of why solar hadn’t yet succeeded. As Rodriguez put it:

Going to a community and talking about solar power isn’t like going into a community and talking about space travel. It is something that people have already seen, because NGOs have donated solar systems to these communities for decades. In many cases, the systems worked perfectly, but eventually the batteries died, and nobody was there to service them.

There solution was to start from the bottom up, using the free-market principle of adapting their approach to meet local needs. This would involve identifying communities before visiting them, taking into account how many people were living without electricity, and what the housing situation was like. When they then visited these communities, they sought out community leaders and held public meetings to learn about them and present their ideas.

Buildings relationships with local communities was a challenge, but so was creating a product for a market whose needs ranged from basic lighting and cell phone charging to powering a refrigerator all day. What they found was that unelectrified communities were relying on terribly inefficient means, ranging from diesel generators to walking to the nearest electrified community to plug in a phone.

What was resulted was a Solar Kit, consisting of a 10W Solar Panel, a control box with 7 Amp Battery, 2 LED Bulbs (and a third optional bulb), and a universal cell phone charger. This kit has the ability to provide five hours of electricity to a house made up of two rooms that measure roughly 25 square meters (225 square feet) each. This is the typical design of homes in rural Guatemala, with one room serving as the bedroom and the other as the kitchen.

With that done, they began working on their sales strategy. Initially, this consisted of working with microfinance credit institutions to help families and communities purchase their solar kits. But after watching too many credit applications get rejected, they took a page from the telecom companies that have made cell phones ubiquitous in Guatemala, Basically, they switched to a pay-as-you-go plan.

Today, Quetsol employs a staff of 20 people and boasts board members like Google’s Tom Chi. There product line has also expanded, with the Q1 Solar Kit being supplemented by the Q3, a heavier model that boasts a 75W solar panel, an 85 Amp Battery, and five LED bulbs. The Q2 Kit – a middle of the road model with a 30W panel, 34 amp battery and 3 bulbs – is soon to be released.

But most importantly of all, they have electrified more than 3,500 homes in Guatemala thus far. But that is just a drop in the bucket compared to their long-term goal. Basically, the organization is viewing Guatemala as a stepping stone to all of Latin America as well as Africa by 2015. By 2016, they’d like to tackle the nearly 700 million off-the-grid homes in Asia.

Might sound ambitious, but Rodriguez and Marroquin feel they have the business acumen and social entrepreneurial savvy to pull it off. And given their background and business model, I’d say they are about right. Combined with other technologies that merge local needs with clean, efficient, and renewable means, development in the developing world might actually be an eco-friendly possibility.

Sources: fastcoexist.com, quetsol.com

Timeline of the Future…

I love to study this thing we call “the future”, and began to do so as a hobby the day I made the decision to become a sci-fi writer. And if there’s anything I’ve learned, its that the future is an intangible thing, a slippery beast we try to catch by the tail at any given moment that is constantly receding before us. And when predict it, we are saying more about the time in which we are living than anything that has yet to occur.

As William Gibson famously said: “…science fiction was always about the period in which it was written.” At every juncture in our history, what we perceive as being the future changes based on what’s going on at the time. And always, people love to bring up what has been predicted in the past and either fault or reward the authors for either “getting it right” or missing the mark.

This would probably leave many people wondering what the point of it all is. Why not just wait and let the future tend to itself? Because it’s fun, that’s why! And as a science fiction writer, its an indispensable exercise. Hell, I’d argue its absolutely essential to society as a whole. As a friend of one once said, “science fiction is more of a vehicle than a genre.” The point is to make observations about society, life, history, and the rest.

And sometimes, just sometimes, predictive writers get it right. And lately, I’ve been inspired by sources like Future Timeline to take a look at the kinds of predictions I began making when I started writing and revising them. Not only have times changed and forced me to revise my own predictions, but my research into what makes humanity tick and what we’re up to has come a long way.

So here’s my own prediction tree, looking at the next few centuries and whats likely to happen…

21st Century:

2013-2050:

Ongoing recession in world economy, the United States ceases to be the greatest economic power
China, India, Russia and Brazil boast highest rates of growth despite continued rates of poverty
Oil prices spike due to disappearance of peak oil and costs of extracting tar sands
Solar power, wind, tidal power growing in use, slowly replacing fossil fuel and coal
First arcologies finished in China, Japan, Russia, India and the United States

Humanity begins colonizing the Moon and mounts manned mission to Mars
Settlements constructed using native soil and 3D printing/sintering technology
NASA tows asteroid to near Earth and begins studies, leading to plans for asteroid mining
Population grows to 9 billion, with over 6 living in major cities across the all five continents
Climate Change leading to extensive drought and famine, as well as coastal storms, flooding and fires
Cybernetics, nanotech and biotech leading to the elimination of disabilities
3D Construction and Computer-Assisted Design create inexpensive housing in developing world

First exploratory mission to Europa mounted, discovers proof of basic life forms under the surface ice
Rome ordains first openly homosexual priests, an extremely controversial move that splits the church
First semi-sentient, Turing compatible AI’s are produced and put into service
Thin, transparent, flexible medical patches leading to age of “digital medicine”
Religious orders formed opposed to “augmentation”, “transhumanism” and androids
First true quantum computers roll off the assembly line

Creation of the worldwide quantum internet underway
Quantum cryptography leads to increased security, spamming and hacking begins to drop
Flexible, transparent smartphones, PDAs and tablets become the norm
Fully immersive VR environments now available for recreational, commercial and educational use
Carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere passes 600 ppm, efforts to curb emissions are redoubled
ISS is retired, replaced by multiple space stations servicing space shuttles and commercial firms
World’s first orbital colony created with a population of 400 people

2050-2100:

Global economy enters “Second Renaissance” as AI, nanomachinery, quantum computing, and clean energy lead to explosion in construction and development
Commercial space travel become a major growth industry with regular trips to the Moon
Implant technology removes the need for digital devices, technology now embeddable
Medical implants leading to elimination of neurological disorders and injuries
Synthetic food becoming the rage, 3D printers offering balanced nutrition with sustainability

Canada, Russia, Argentina, and Brazil become leading exporters of foodstuffs, fresh water and natural gas
Colonies on the Moon and Mars expand, new settlement missions plotted to Ganymede, Europa, Oberon and Titan
Quantum internet expanding into space with quantum satellites, allowing off-world connectivity to worldwide web
Self-sufficient buildings with water recycling, carbon capture and clean energy becomes the norm in all major cities
Second and third generation “Martians” and “Loonies” are born, giving rise to colonial identity

Asteroid Belt becomes greatest source of minerals, robotic foundries use sintering to create manufactured products
Europe experiences record number of cold winters due to disruption of the Gulf Stream
Missions mounted to extra-Solar systems using telexploration probes and space penetrators
Average life expectancy now exceeds 100, healthy children expected to live to 120 years of age
NASA, ESA, CNSA, RFSA, and ISRO begin mounting missions to exoplanets using robot ships and antimatter engines
Private missions to exoplanets with cryogenically frozen volunteers and crowdfunded spaceships

Severe refugee crises take place in South America, Southern Europe and South-East Asia
Militarized borders and sea lanes trigger multiple humanitarian crises
India and Pakistan go to war over Indus River as food shortages mount
China clamps down on separatists in western provinces of Xinjian and Tibet to protect source of the Yangtze and Yellow River
Biotechnology begins to grow, firms using bacteria to assemble structural materials

Fully sentient AIs created and integrated into all aspects of life
Traditionalist communities form, people seeking to disconnect from modern world and eschew enhancement
Digital constructs become available, making neurological downloads available
Nanotech research leading to machinery and materials assembled at the atomic level
Traditional classrooms giving way to “virtual classrooms”, on-demand education by AI instructors
Medical science, augmentation, pharmaceuticals and uploads lead to the first generation of human “Immortals”

Orbital colonies gives way to Orbital Nexus, with hundreds of habitats being established
Global population surpasses 12 billion despite widespread famine and displacement
Solar, wind, tidal, and fusion power replace oil and coal as the dominant power source worldwide
Census data shows half of world residents now have implants or augmentation of some kind
Research into the Alcubierre Drive begins to bear experimental results

22nd Century:

2100-2150:

Climate Change and global population begin to level off
First “Neural Collective” created, volunteers upload their thought patterns into matrix with others
Transhumanism becomes established religion, espousing the concept of transcendence
Widespread use of implants and augmentation leads to creation of new underclass called “organics”
Solar power industry in the Middle East and North Africa leading to growth in local economies
Biotech leads to growth of “glucose economy”, South American and Sub-Saharan economies leading in manufacture of biomaterials
Population in Solar Colonies and Orbital Nexus reaches 100,000 and continues to grow

Off-world industry continues to grow as Asteroid Belt and colonies provide the majority of Earth’s mineral needs
Famine now widespread on all five continents, internalized food production in urban spaces continues
UN gives way to UNE, United Nations of Earth, which has near-universal representation
First test of Alcubierre FTL Drive successful, missions to neighboring systems planned
Tensions begin to mount in Solar Colonies as pressure mounts to produce more agricultural goods
Extinction rate of wild animals begins to drop off, efforts at ecological restoration continue
First attempts to creating world religion are mounted, met with limited success

Governments in most developed countries transitioning to “democratic anarchy”
Political process and involvement becoming digitized as representation becomes obsolete
“Super-sentience” emerges as people merge their neural patterns with each other or AIs
Law reformed to recognize neural constructs and AIs as individuals, entitled to legal rights
Biotech research merges with AI and nanotech to create first organic buildings with integrated intelligence

2150-2200:

Majority of the world’s population live in arcologies and self-sufficient environments
Census reveals over three quarters of world lives with implants or augmentation of some kind
Population of Orbital Nexus, off-world settlements surpasses 1 million
First traditionalist mission goes into space, seeking world insulated from rapid change and development
Labor tensions and off-world riots lead to creation of Solar policing force with mandate to “keep the peace”

First mission to extra=Solar planets arrive, robots begin surveying surface of Gliese 581 g, Gliese 667C c, HD 85512 b, HD 40307 g, Gliese 163 c, Tau Ceti e, Tau Ceti f
Deep space missions planned and executed with Alcubierre Drive to distant worlds
1st Wave using relativistic engines and 2nd Wave using Alcubierre Drives meet up and begin colonizing exoplanets
Neighboring star systems within 25 light years begin to be explored
Terraforming begins on Mars, Venus and Europa using programmed strains of bacteria, nanobots, robots and satellites
Space Elevator and Slingatron built on the Moon, used to transport people to space and send goods to the surface

Earth’s ecology begins to recover
Natural species are reintroduced through cloning and habitat recovery
Last reported famine on record, food production begins to move beyond urban farms
Colonies within 50 light years are established on Gliese 163 c, Gliese 581 g, Gliese 667C c, HD 85512 b, HD 40307 g, Tau Ceti e, Tau Ceti f
Off-world population reaches 5 million and continues to grow
Tensions between Earth and Solar Colonies continue, lead to demands for interplanetary governing body
Living, breathing cities become the norm on all settled worlds, entire communities build of integrated organic materials run by AIs and maintained by programmed DNA and machinery

23rd Century and Beyond:

Who the hell knows?

*Note: Predictions and dates are subject to revision based on ongoing developments and the author’s imagination. Not to be taken literally, and definitely open to input and suggestions.

Towards a Cleaner Future: Fuel Cell Breakthrough!

One of the greatest challenges facing renewable energy is making it affordable and cost effective, to the point where it will naturally offset such sources as fossil fuels and coal. And when it comes to hydrogen fuel cells, a recent development may have accomplished just that. Quite surprising when you consider that it came from Alberta, home of the Athabasca Oil Sands and an output of roughly 4 million barrels of crude a day.

It all happened late last month, when researchers at the University of Calgary published a paper in the Journal of Science that they had come up with a much cheaper and easier way to build an electrolyzer. This is the device that uses electricity to break up water into hydrogen and oxygen, which are then used to power hydrogen fuel cells.

For some time now, these fuel cells have been considered the most promising means of powering automobiles with a clean, renewable energy source. By recombining the two basic elements of hydrogen and oxygen, energy is generated and the only waste product is water. The only difficulty is the means of production, as electrolyzers often depend on expensive and sometimes toxic metals.

The most common of current methods involves the use of expensive rare earth metals in precise crystalline arrangements to catalyze, or speed up, the reaction. But with the new process developed by Chris Berlinguette and Simon Trudel comes into play, which involves catalyzers built out of common metals without the need for the crystal structure, the process will not only be vastly simplified but extremely cheaper.

Based on the estimates presented in their paper, Trudel and Berlinguette estimate that their new eletrolyzer will deliver results comparable to current techniques but at a cost of about one-one-thousandth the norm. The implications for clean, renewable energy, such as wind or solar generators, could be enormous. Not only would it be far cheaper and more efficient, there would be far less toxic waste materials produced.

Not only that, but another major stumbling block for clean energy could be overcome. As is the case with just about any type of renewable power source – wind, solar, tidal – is that it is dependent on conditions which limit when power can be generated. But stored hydrogen energy can be used at anytime and could easily replace gas and coal, just as long as the production process is cost-effective.

As Berlinguette himself pointed out, making and electrolyzer cost-effective means being able to produce power on demand and to scale:

If you think of a wind turbine producing electricity at two o’clock in the morning, there’s no one around to actually use that electricity, so it just gets dumped. If you could set that up with an electrolyzer, you could convert that electricity into hydrogen, then the next day, when there is demand, you can sell that electricity at a premium during periods of high demand.

In anticipation of the inevitable investment this will attract, Berlinguette and Trudel have already formed a company called FireWater Fuel Corp. to market their work and expect to have a commercially available electrolyzer by next year. So for those of you with money to invest and a socially-responsible, environmental outlook, get out your check books out and be prepared to invest!

Source: huffingtonpost.ca

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